锌产业链周度报告-20260322

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market has fundamental support at the bottom, but risks are still brewing, with a neutral strength - weakness analysis [2]. - In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate prices. The zinc ore is at the end of the expansion cycle, and the zinc ore tight - balance may become the norm. The TC operation center is expected to decline this year, and the zinc price operation center is expected to rise [3]. - Currently, the zinc price has basically priced in previous disturbances. If the tense situation in the Middle East persists, the possibility of the market shifting to recession trading increases, and risks in the non - ferrous sector are still brewing. It is recommended to pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities on dips and mid - term internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Price: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,935, with a weekly decline of 4.99%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,860, with a night - session decline of 0.33%. The LmeS - zinc3 closed at 3056 last week, with a weekly decline of 7.21% [6]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 159,743, an increase of 73,802 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 106,130, an increase of 30,939. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 16,533, an increase of 9,477, and the open interest was 208,190, a decrease of 7,216 [6]. - Inventory: SHFE zinc warrant inventory was 102,509, an increase of 16,416; SHFE total zinc inventory was 152,266, an increase of 4,918; social inventory was 266,100, a decrease of 2,700; LME zinc inventory was 117,675, an increase of 19,775; bonded - area inventory was 3,300, unchanged [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - Inventory: Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories are at high levels, and zinc ingot inventory continues to increase [8]. - Profit: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, while smelting profits are at historical lows. Zinc concentrate enterprise production profits are stable and at historical highs, refining zinc enterprise production profits are stable and at historical lows, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are rising but at the same - period low [10][11]. - Operating Rate: Zinc concentrate and refining zinc operating rates have declined and are at historical lows in the same period. Downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operating rates have increased but are at medium - low levels in history [12][13]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - Spot: Spot premiums have rebounded. Overseas premiums are differentiated this week, with Singapore and Antwerp premiums remaining flat, and LME CASH - 3M rising [16][18]. - Spread: The near - end of SHFE zinc has strengthened [21]. - Inventory: There was a slight de - stocking this week, and the position - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, LME total inventory has increased, the CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory, and the cancellation warrant ratio has decreased to a historical low. Bonded - area inventory remained flat this week, and global zinc visible inventory has rebounded significantly [24][30][32]. - Futures: The domestic long - position volume is at the median of the historical same period [33]. 3.4 Supply - Zinc Concentrate: Zinc concentrate imports have dropped significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a high level in the same period, import ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have remained stable. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory has rebounded from a low level [36][37]. - Refined Zinc: Smelting output has declined and is at the median of the historical same period. Smelter finished - product inventory has rebounded and is at a high level in the same period. Zinc alloy output is at a medium level [38]. - Imports and Exports: The refined zinc import profit and loss, import volume, and export volume are presented in the report, and the refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive [40][46]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - Downstream Processing Materials: Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive, downstream monthly operating rates have declined slightly and are mostly at historical lows in the same period. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also presented in the report [46][50]. - End - Users: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [61]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon, and electricity, as well as the profit and loss of zinc smelters in some European countries, are presented in the report [63][64][66].