固收加时代，股市震荡的风会吹进债市“避风港”吗

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond relationship in 2026 shows new changes, which is still weakly correlated overall, but the situation of stock - bond co - pressure has increased. There are three new clues: the marginal change of fixed - income plus funds, the switching of equity main lines, and the disturbance of easing expectations [4][7][8]. - In the medium and long term, the bond market is still supported by allocation power and the policy environment, but in the short term, the ultra - long end and highly tradable varieties of the bond market may show positive correlation with stocks and be under pressure together with equities, and may also create "opportunities from falls" for the bond market in the medium term [4][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 2026 Stock - Bond Relationship New Trends - In 2026, the stock - bond relationship remains in a weakly correlated range, and the bond market moves along its own pricing main line. Before the Spring Festival in early 2026, the bond market was "desensitized" to the stock market. Recently, under the background of equity shocks, the stock - bond relationship shows a weak positive correlation, and the hedging property of bonds is not as stable as before [7][8]. Fixed - Income Plus Fund Structure Evolution, Equity Volatility Leading to Portfolio Rebalancing - In 2025, fixed - income plus products expanded significantly, with incremental funds mainly concentrated in secondary bond funds. The proportion of funds holding both bond positions and equity positions increased, making the marginal capital sources of stocks and bonds more consistent. Equity fluctuations can be directly transmitted to the bond market through net value retracement, redemption pressure, and rebalancing behavior [9]. - During the equity adjustment in November 2015 and February 2026, and after the outbreak of the US - Israel - Iran conflict, fixed - income plus products sold bonds. When facing redemption, the selling pressure on bonds shows the order of "high - liquidity first, low - liquidity later; trading positions first, allocation positions later" [12][13]. Under the Weak Correlation Pattern, Which Equity Signals Are More Worthy of Attention for Bond Investors - Different equity sectors have different impacts on the bond market. Since 2026, the positive correlation between growth, cyclical, and some stable - style sectors and the bond market has increased, while the financial sector shows a weak negative correlation [19]. - The relationship between sectors and the bond market depends on the trading main line. When growth is trading risk preference and equity profit - making effect, and cyclical is trading total repair and nominal growth increase, they are more negative for the bond market. When growth corresponds to structural prosperity in a low - interest - rate environment and cyclical reflects commodity, supply disturbances, and external shocks, they may be driven by the same macro main line as the bond market [22]. - Financial sector strength often means re - trading of credit expansion, policy efforts, and nominal growth repair, increasing the pressure of the traditional "strong stocks, weak bonds". If growth and cyclical sectors dominate the fluctuations, it is necessary to distinguish whether they correspond to structural prosperity in a low - interest - rate environment or re - inflation trading caused by rising commodity prices, supply disturbances, and geopolitical conflicts [27]. Re - inflation Trading: Why Is the Hedging Property of Bonds Unstable Periodically - Geopolitical conflicts affect the stock - bond relationship through oil price increases and imported inflation expectations, weakening the hedging stability of bonds from the fundamental and policy expectation levels. Once the market trades the concern about policy constraints due to imported inflation, especially when combined with month - end capital fluctuations or central bank net capital withdrawal, it is more likely to form a short - term cautious expectation of monetary policy, suppressing the bond market [28]. - The re - inflation expectation has been reflected in the data. The PPI环比 in February reached 0.4%, a four - year high, showing signs of imported inflation. The bond market is more sensitive to such shocks than before, and geopolitical conflicts may make the hedging property of bonds more unstable [28][30]. The Safe Haven May Have Ripples, but Long - Term Investors Need Not Fear Temporary Waves - In the short term, the bond market may show a certain positive correlation with stocks and needs to be vigilant against external shocks. From the end of the month to before the release of next month's PPI, the bond market may face pressure, especially high - liquidity varieties such as 30 - year treasury bonds, long - term policy financial bonds, and long - term Tier 2 capital bonds [32]. - If the subsequent adjustment leads to an increase in yields, it should be regarded as a mid - term re - layout window. After the quarter - end, if the capital situation eases, external shocks do not escalate, and re - inflation expectations do not strengthen, grid - adding strategies can be used to participate in high - liquidity varieties affected by the shock [32].