白糖：紧盯原油，震荡走高

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International market: Driven by macro factors, the market is expected to fluctuate upwards. The ongoing Middle - East conflict has led to an upward trend in crude oil prices, higher inflation expectations, and increased expectations of tightened liquidity. Although the market anticipates a restorative increase in global sugar production and inventory accumulation in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the significant downward revision of India's production data by ISMA and the expected decline in the MIX in Brazil's central - southern region in the 26/27 season have improved the fundamentals marginally. The rise in crude oil prices has boosted raw sugar, causing the New York raw sugar to fluctuate upwards [3][26]. - Domestic market: The sentiment is bullish, and the trend is strong. In the 25/26 sugar - making season, the domestic sugar production is expected to continue to increase. Zhengzhou sugar follows the trend of raw sugar, and trading revolves around the import rhythm. Conventional imports remain at a relatively high level, while non - conventional imports have decreased. The cost of out - of - quota imports is lower than domestic production costs, leading to intense competition for the pricing anchor. The decline in the sugar production rate in Guangxi has confirmed the increase in production costs. The short - term commodity price increase sentiment has spread in the energy and agricultural product sectors, pushing up the price of Zhengzhou sugar [3][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Data - Exchange rates: The US dollar index is 99.51 (previous value 100.5), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.28 (previous value 5.25) [6]. - Crude oil: The WTI crude oil price is $98.09 per barrel, a decrease of 1.23% [6]. 2. Industry Data 2.1 Market Price and Trading Data - Price and basis: The active contract price of New York raw sugar is 15.63 cents per pound, an increase of 8.47%. The spot price of Guangxi Group is 5430 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton compared to last week. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5439 yuan per ton, a decrease of 8 yuan per ton compared to last week. The basis of the main contract has decreased slightly compared to last week. CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be 11.7 million tons (previous value 11.2 million), consumption will be 15.7 million tons (previous value 15.9 million), and imports will be 5 million tons [16]. - Warehouse receipts: As of last weekend, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar were 16,342 [16]. - CFTC latest position report (New York raw sugar): As of March 17, long positions of funds decreased by 10,175 lots, short positions of funds decreased by 16,615 lots, and net long positions increased by 6440 lots to - 204,684 lots, showing a slight recovery [16]. 2.2 Industry Supply - Demand Data - Global supply - demand: ISO predicts a supply shortage of 3.46 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season (previous value 2.92 million tons) and a supply surplus of 1.22 million tons in the 25/26 sugar - making season (previous value 1.63 million tons) [19]. - Brazil: According to Unica's bi - weekly production progress report, as of February 1, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugarcane crushed in the central - southern region of Brazil was 602 million tons, a decrease of 2.16% compared to the same period last year; sugar production was 40.24 million tons, an increase of 0.86% compared to the same period last year; alcohol production was 31.71 billion liters, a decrease of 4.64% compared to the same period last year; the cumulative sugar - using cane ratio was 50.74%, compared to 48.14% in the same period last year [20]. - India: According to ISMA/NFCSF data, as of March 15, the sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar - making season was 26.18 million tons (+2.46 million tons). ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be 32.4 million tons (previous value 34.35 million), of which 3.1 million tons will be consumed for ethanol, and the net sugar production will be 29.3 million tons; in the 24/25 sugar - making season, it was 29.5 million tons (with a net sugar production of 26.1 million tons). India has additionally approved the export of 500,000 tons of sugar, and 1.5 million tons of export quotas have been approved previously [20]. - Thailand: According to OCSB data, as of March 11, the sugar production in Thailand in the 25/26 sugar - making season was 9.79 million tons, an increase of 280,000 tons compared to the same period last year [21]. - China: CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be 11.7 million tons, consumption will be 15.7 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons. Customs data shows that in February 2026, 240,000 tons of sugar were imported, and the cumulative sugar imports in the 25/26 sugar - making season were 2.28 million tons (+740,000 tons); from January to February 2026, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 142,000 tons, and the cumulative import of syrup and premixed powder in the 25/26 sugar - making season was 442,000 tons (-305,000 tons) [21]. 3. Operation Suggestions - International market: Driven by macro factors, the market is expected to fluctuate upwards. Pay attention to Brazil's production and export rhythm, India's production, and relevant industrial policies [26]. - Domestic market: The sentiment is bullish, and the trend is strong. Pay attention to changes in import policies [26].