原木周度报告-20260322

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to the rebound in demand, a rapid increase in port departures, normal supply levels, reduction in port inventory, and the rise in sea freight, the log price has rebounded [5] - In the medium - term, supply will increase in March, demand will recover slowly, and port inventory may be reduced from a high level. Log supply is expected to maintain a normal level based on shipping schedules, while weak real - estate new construction on the demand side will continue to drag down log demand [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Trend - The market is strengthening marginally, and prices are rebounding [3] 3.2 Spot Price Trend - For different tree species, specifications, and regions, most spot prices remained stable from March 20, 2026, compared to the previous week, with only a few showing slight decreases. For example, the 3.9 - meter 20 + radiata pine in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/m³, a 1.4% drop; the 5.9 - meter 20 + radiata pine in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/m³, a 2.6% drop [7] 3.3 Price and Spread - The report presents the spot price trends of different specifications of radiata pine and spruce logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang [9][10][12][14][16] 3.4 Supply - New Zealand Log Shipping Schedule Data: Multiple log shipments from New Zealand and Australia are expected to arrive at Chinese ports between March 18 and March 27, 2026, with cargo volumes ranging from 35,192.04 m³ to 42,000.0 m³ [20] - Arrival at Ports: The arrival at ports has returned to normal levels [22] 3.5 Demand and Inventory - Domestic Main Port Inventory and Daily Average Shipment: From March 6 to March 13, 2026, inventory in most ports decreased, such as a 7.7% decrease in the total inventory of Lanshan Port and a 25.2% decrease in a certain part of the inventory. Shipments in some ports increased significantly, like a 77.5% increase in the total shipment volume of Lanshan Port [24] 3.6 Other Price Direct Influencing Factors - Freight: The dry - bulk BDI increased by 1.4% compared to the previous week; the handy - size BHSI decreased by 6.5%; the crude oil BDTI increased by 14.5%; the SCFI composite index decreased by 0.2% [29] - Exchange Rate: The USD/CNY decreased by 0.2%; the USD/NZD increased by 1.0% [29]