尿素周度报告：国泰君安期货·能源化工-20260322

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (March 12 - 18, 2026), China's urea production output was 1.5194 million tons, a decrease of 18,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.18%. Next week, China's weekly urea output is expected to be around 1.46 - 1.47 million tons, a significant decrease from this period. The production is expected to continue to decline in the next cycle [2]. - In terms of domestic demand, in the short term, the agricultural spring plowing demand in the central and northeastern regions will gradually start in late March, and the overall domestic demand will support the price. In terms of exports, exports currently have a small impact on the urea market [2]. - As of March 18, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 808,900 tons, a decrease of 148,700 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 15.53%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this week. Affected by multiple factors, the market trading atmosphere was good, and the overall shipment of urea factories was smooth, with tight supply in some factories. Next week, the total inventory of domestic urea sample enterprises is expected to be around 760,000 tons, a slight decrease from this cycle [2]. - As of March 19, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 167,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 11.64%. The urea port inventory decreased this week, mainly due to the departure of some large - granular urea from Yantai Port and the limited port collection of most manufacturers in the current spring plowing market [2]. - Overall, as the spring plowing demand gradually starts, the pick - up at northern factories has gradually improved, and urea is expected to continue to show a de - stocking pattern in the short term. In the short term, the short - term geopolitical conflict brings a valuation premium to energy and chemical products. Urea is expected to fluctuate with support. The support mainly comes from the strong expectation of agricultural spring plowing demand after the Spring Festival and the process of gradually realizing this strong expectation. However, on the other hand, the guiding price of urea policy for spot goods has not been raised from April to June, so the policy pressure is gradually increasing, and the upward space of the unilateral price is suppressed. In terms of valuation, for the 05 contract, the upper pressure level is around 1,950 yuan/ton, mainly due to spot policy pressure and the valuation premium brought by geopolitics. The fundamental support level is expected to be around 1,780 - 1,800 yuan/ton due to the strong expectation of the agricultural demand peak season in 2026 [2]. - Unilateral strategy: Wide - range fluctuations within the valuation range. The upper pressure on 05 is 1,940 - 1,950 yuan/ton (policy pressure), and the static support on 05 is 1,800 - 1,810 yuan/ton (spot support). Inter - period strategy: The spread between months fluctuates. Cross - variety strategy: None [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation End: Price and Spread - The report presents multiple charts related to urea valuation, including urea basis (Zhengyuan, Boda, Jinkai, Dongping), urea monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and urea warehouse receipts. It also shows domestic and international spot price trends of urea [5][9][15][18]. 3.2 Domestic Supply 3.2.1 Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3.92 million tons, and in 2025, it was 6.64 million tons. In 2026, the expected new production capacity is 6.51 million tons [22]. 3.2.2 Output - The production profit is at the break - even line, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The report provides charts of China's daily urea output, capacity utilization rate, coal - based urea output, and gas - based urea output [23][24]. 3.2.3 Cost - The raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has risen. The report provides cost calculations for fixed - bed factories in Shanxi and shows the complete cost trends of urea in different production processes (air - flow bed, fixed - bed, natural gas) [26][27][28]. 3.2.4 Profit - The profit corresponding to the urea cash - flow cost is currently in a profitable state. The report shows the cash - flow profit of urea fixed - bed devices and the production profit of urea in different production processes [31][32][34]. 3.2.5 Net Import (Export) - During the spring plowing period, export policies are tightened. The report provides monthly and annual export data of urea from 2018 to 2025 (E) and charts of small - granular mainstream export profit and monthly export volume [38][39][40]. 3.3 Domestic Demand 3.3.1 Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand shows seasonal strength. Different regions have different fertilizer demands for various crops at different times of the year. High - standard farmland construction has led to an incremental demand for urea from corn [44][45][47]. 3.3.2 Industrial Demand - Compound Fertilizer: The report shows the production cost, production profit, factory inventory, and capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers [51][52][53]. - Melamine: The report presents the production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine [54][55][56]. - Real Estate: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. The report provides data on the export volume of wood products and real estate construction and completion areas [57][58][59]. 3.4 Inventory - The upstream de - stocking pattern continues. The report shows the trends of domestic urea factory inventory and port inventory [64][65][66]. 3.5 International Urea - The report shows the price trends of international urea, including FOB prices of Chinese large - granular urea, Baltic large - granular urea, Middle - East large - granular urea, and CFR price of Brazilian large - granular urea [69][70][71].