铅产业链周度报告-20260322

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, lead prices were under continuous pressure. The lowest price of the SHFE Lead 2605 contract during the week was 16,245 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.90%. The strengthening of the US dollar index and the continuous increase in domestic inventories exerted downward pressure on prices. However, the expected reduction in secondary lead production limited the downside space for prices [7]. - In terms of supply, primary lead production increased while secondary lead production slowed down. Smelters in Henan and Yunnan planned to resume production in mid-March. Secondary lead smelting was in a loss of 200 - 350 yuan/ton, and recyclers were not keen on stockpiling, resulting in a tight supply of scrap batteries. The recovery speed of secondary lead enterprises slowed down, and the resumption of production of some secondary lead producers was postponed [7]. - The operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises remained stable, and finished battery inventories continued to decline. With lead prices remaining weak, large - scale enterprises significantly increased their enthusiasm for restocking at low prices and made substantial purchases of warehouse receipts and spot goods during the week [7]. - As of March 19, the domestic social inventory of lead was 77,600 tons, slightly higher than 76,500 tons on March 12, and the inventory growth rate slowed down. The spot premium of lead strengthened, rising from a discount of 25 yuan/ton on March 13 to par on March 20 [7]. - Trading Strategy: Given the relatively low lead prices and increased disruptions in secondary lead supply, the expected downward space for prices is limited. Previous short positions can be reduced [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position - Price: The SHFE Lead 2605 contract had a weekly decline of 1.90%, with the lowest price of 16,245 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead主力 had a previous closing price of 16,290 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.60%, and a night - session closing price of 16,415 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.77%. LmeS - Lead 3 had a previous closing price of 1,943.5 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 2.13% [7][8]. - Spread: The LME lead premium (0 - 3) increased by 8.93 from - 47.55 to - 38.62. The Shanghai 1 lead spot premium increased by 20 from - 25 to - 5. The secondary lead - primary lead spread increased by 25 from 0 to 25. The near - month to the next - month contract spread decreased by 15 from - 20 to - 35 [8]. - Inventory: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 8,845 to 58,174 tons, the SHFE total lead inventory decreased by 9,939 to 66,110 tons, the social inventory increased by 1,100 to 77,600 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 400 to 284,100 tons. The cancellation ratio of LME lead increased by 0.88% to 2.77% [8]. - Transaction and Position: The trading volume of the SHFE lead主力 increased by 30,675 to 76,606 lots, and the position increased by 29,460 to 93,141 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 decreased by 207 to 7,154 lots, and the position increased by 6,194 to 142,000 lots [8]. 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Scrap Battery, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead - Lead Concentrate: The import volume, consumption, production, and inventory data of lead concentrate over the years are presented in the charts. The import TC increased by 10 to - 135 US dollars/ton, and the domestic TC remained unchanged at 250 yuan/ton. The import lead concentrate smelting profit increased by 22 to - 1,744 yuan/ton, and the domestic lead concentrate smelting profit remained unchanged at - 3,000 yuan/ton [8][22]. - Primary Lead and Secondary Lead: Primary lead production increased, and some smelters in Henan and Yunnan planned to resume production in mid - March. Secondary lead production slowed down due to a loss of 200 - 350 yuan/ton and a tight supply of scrap batteries. The production and operating rate data of primary lead and secondary lead over the years are presented in the charts [7][29][30]. - Primary Lead By - products: The price of 1 silver, the price of 98% sulfuric acid in East China, and the silver by - product output data over the years are presented in the charts [33][34]. - Secondary Lead: The cost, profit and loss, raw material inventory of secondary lead, and the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries over the years are presented in the charts [37][39]. - Import and Export: The net import volume, import volume, export volume, and import profit and loss data of refined lead over the years are presented in the charts [40]. 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Battery, Terminal - Battery: The operating rate, finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers, and export volume data of lead - acid batteries over the years are presented in the charts [43]. - Consumption and Terminal: The actual lead consumption, monthly output of automobiles and motorcycles over the years are presented in the charts [45].