中国宏桥（01378）：2025年全年业绩表现亮眼，铝一体化布局优势显著

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378.HK) [6] Core Views - In 2025, China Hongqiao achieved a revenue of 162.35 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a net profit of 22.64 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1% [1] - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the second half of 2025, primarily due to a significant drop in alumina prices and reduced aluminum processing sales [1] - The company has made significant advancements in new materials, technologies, and processes, solidifying its leading position in the global aluminum alloy materials and green manufacturing sectors [3] - The cash dividend for 2025 was 14.475 billion RMB, with a payout ratio of 64%, reflecting the company's operational confidence [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 was 162.35 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 4% year-on-year [5] - The net profit for 2025 was 22.64 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 1.2% year-on-year [5] - The estimated net profit for 2026-2028 is projected to be 32.27 billion RMB, 36.55 billion RMB, and 40.68 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.4, 8.3, and 7.4 [4][5] - The company’s EPS for 2025 is 2.27 RMB per share, with a projected increase to 3.23 RMB per share in 2026 [5] Production and Pricing - In 2025, the company sold 13.397 million tons of alumina, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%, while aluminum sales were 5.824 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.2% [1][2] - The average selling price of electrolytic aluminum (excluding tax) in 2025 was 18,216 RMB per ton, a year-on-year increase of 4%, while the price of alumina was 2,899 RMB per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 15% [2] - The gross profit margin for alumina in 2025 was 643 RMB per ton, a decrease of 47% year-on-year, while the gross profit margin for electrolytic aluminum was 5,183 RMB per ton, an increase of 20% year-on-year [2]