镍：宏观与矿端矛盾分歧，短线多空博弈加剧；不锈钢：海外宏观压制，现实成本支撑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel, there are contradictions between the macro - situation and the mine end, intensifying the short - term long - short game. The Middle - East conflict and overseas inflation expectations put pressure on the non - ferrous metals market, but the mine end and wet - process supply contradictions support nickel prices in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the covered strategy. Focus on the Indonesian nickel mine contradictions and the implementation of supplementary quotas [2]. - For stainless steel, there is overseas macro - suppression, but real - cost support. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the cost may limit the downward elasticity in the short term. Mid - term nickel - steel arbitrage opportunities can be considered [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions Analysis 3.1.1 Shanghai Nickel - Macro factors such as the US - Iran conflict and overseas inflation expectations put pressure on the non - ferrous metals market. The short - term interest - rate cut expectation has sharply declined, and the probability of a long - term interest - rate increase has risen. - On the fundamental side, the current mine - end contradictions and pyrometallurgical costs may limit the downward elasticity of nickel compared to other non - ferrous metals. The total price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in March increased by $25 year - on - year to $71, pushing the marginal pyrometallurgical cash cost above 130,000 yuan/ton. - If the mine - end contradictions and wet - process supply problems fade in the middle of the year, the logic of wet - process replacing pyrometallurgical marginal costs may emerge. But in the short term, the marginal cost is still the integrated pyrometallurgical path. - The Indonesian APNI Association mentioned a 30% quota revision space, reducing the upward elasticity of Shanghai Nickel. Pay attention to the covered strategy in the short term [2]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - The US - Iran conflict's shipping problems have a negative pressure expectation on the global economy. Stainless steel consumption in the Middle East accounts for about 2% of the global total. Overseas inflation expectations significantly reduce the probability of interest - rate cuts, and the expectation of tightened liquidity puts pressure on risk assets. - The supply - demand contradiction of stainless steel is not large. The destocking level after the Spring Festival in recent weeks is acceptable compared to the same period in previous years, but the upstream inventory is at a relatively high historical level. The production schedule in March soared to 3.63 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month increase of 40%. Among them, the production of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.25 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0% and a month - on - month increase of 49%. - The main contradiction lies in the raw material end. The cash - cost break - even line for delivery on the spot market has risen to nearly 14,100 yuan/ton. The total price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in March increased by $25 year - on - year to $71, and the marginal cost of Indonesian ferronickel has increased by nearly 20%, with the full cost at around 1,070 yuan/nickel. The overall cost may temporarily limit the downward elasticity [3]. 3.2 Inventory Tracking - On March 20, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 641 tons to 84,387 tons, with warehouse - receipt inventory increasing by 228 tons to 56,690 tons, spot inventory increasing by 413 tons to 24,727 tons, and bonded - area inventory remaining unchanged at 2,970 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,146 tons to 283,512 tons [4]. - On March 20, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate's upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines remained unchanged month - on - month at 5, 7, and 7 days respectively. The precursor inventory decreased by 0.6 month - on - month to 13.0 days, and the ternary material inventory decreased by 0.3 month - on - month to 7.2 days [5][6]. - On March 20, the SMM ferronickel full - industry chain inventory decreased by 4% month - on - month to 126,000 metal tons and decreased by 4% week - on - week. In February, the SMM stainless - steel mill inventory was 1.65 million tons, with a year - on - month increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The stainless - steel social inventory was 1.1274 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.32%. Among them, the cold - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 691,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.07%, and the hot - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 436,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.10% [6]. 3.3 Market News - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties [6]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel - mining business in Guatemala in a few months due to the sharp rebound in nickel prices and the US lifting restrictions on its local facilities. The expected restart time of the CGN mine is around April - May 2026, consistent with the restart time of the PRONICO ferronickel plant [7]. - On February 10, the ESDM released the 2026 nickel work plan and cost budget (RKAB). The approved nickel ore production quota is between 260 million and 270 million tons [7]. - On February 12, Philippine miners said that the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore may double [8]. - On February 18, 2026, a landslide occurred in a tailings area in the Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, resulting in one worker's death and the suspension of the affected area's operations [8]. - On February 17, 2026, Sherritt International Corporation reduced the operation scale of its joint - venture in Moa, Cuba, due to limited fuel supply. It suspended mining operations and put the processing plant on standby for planned maintenance [8]. - PT Weda Bay Nickel (PT WBN) received a preliminary notice from the Indonesian authorities to submit a work plan and budget (RKAB), with the annual production and sales (internal and external) volume of 12 million tons, a 70% reduction compared to 2025 [8]. - The Indonesian Forest Area Management Working Group (PKH Working Group) imposed sanctions on four nickel - mining companies in North Maluku Province. These companies were fined according to the regulations, with the nickel ore commodity fine standard at 6.5 million Indonesian rupiah per hectare [9]. - The ESDM estimated that Indonesia's nickel ore production in 2026 will be about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of ferronickel and 92,000 tons of nickel matte [9]. - The APNI said that the revision of the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) is expected to be approved in July, and the revised RKAB may increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% [9]. - The ESDM aims to complete the approval of the 2026 mineral and coal mining work plan and budget (RKAB) by the end of March 2026 [9]. 3.4 Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides a table of weekly key data tracking for nickel and stainless steel, including closing prices, trading volumes, prices of various nickel products, and price differences [11].