多晶硅：供需走弱，现货价格下跌：工业硅：关注成本端变动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon: The inventory increased slightly this week. The supply side is affected by electricity price changes, and there is no further increase. The demand side maintains a rigid pattern. The 3 - 4 months are in a supply - demand destocking pattern, which supports the bottom of the market. Considering the hedging pressure of upstream factories, the upside space is limited, but the downside space is supported by funds. It is recommended to buy at low levels, and the expected trading range next week is 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton [3][6][7] - Polysilicon: The market is in a weak pattern. Supply increases while demand weakens. It is in a high - inventory destocking state. The price center will decline in the early stage of destocking. The pressure of warehouse receipts near the end of May will also affect the market. The expected trading range next week is 35000 - 42000 yuan/ton [4][6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - The report provides the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses of industrial silicon from March 4 to March 20, 2026, including the prices of Si5530, Si4210, and Si3303 [10] 3.2 Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Supply: The upstream resumption of production is less than expected. The start - up rate increased slightly this week, mainly from the resumption of production in southwestern factories. Xinjiang factories have no new start - up plans for the time being. The cost in the dry season in the southwest is 10000 - 10500 yuan/ton (converted to the futures market) [3] - Inventory: This week, the social inventory increased by 0.1 million tons, the factory inventory increased by 0.07 million tons, and the overall industry inventory increased by 0.17 million tons. Attention should be paid to the registration of futures warehouse receipts [3] - The report also presents multiple charts, including the social inventory, factory inventory, monthly start - up rate, monthly output, profit calculation, export and import volume, trade - link inventory - to - sales ratio of industrial silicon, as well as the prices of raw materials such as silica, petroleum coke, washed coking coal, charcoal, and electrodes, and the electricity prices in major production areas [12][13][15] 3.3 Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: The weekly output increased slightly this month, and there is also a resumption of silicon material production capacity, which will bring an increase in supply. The current factory inventory is about 350,000 tons, and the overall industry inventory is about 500,000 tons, close to 5 months of consumption, at a relatively high level [4] - Demand: The silicon wafer production schedule decreased week - on - week. The continuous decline in silicon wafer prices affects the psychological purchase price of silicon materials. After the end of the export rush due to the cancellation of photovoltaic tax rebates in mid - March, the domestic market has not improved significantly. Although European orders have increased this week, it is a short - term phenomenon. The overall photovoltaic demand is expected to be weak [4][5] - The report includes charts on the start - up rate, import and export volume, spot price, production volume and year - on - year change, profit calculation of the polysilicon industry, as well as the export volume of monocrystalline silicon wafers, domestic photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity, and new photovoltaic grid - connected capacity [20][21][22] 3.4 Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Organic Silicon - The report provides charts on the average price trend, monthly start - up rate, production volume and monthly year - on - year change, factory inventory, export volume and year - on - year change, and profit calculation of domestic DMC [24][26] 3.5 Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloy - The report presents charts on the price seasonality, monthly start - up rate, average profit calculation of the recycled aluminum industry, and the seasonality of domestic automobile monthly sales [26][28]