债券熊市可能正在结束

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the perspective of "wave - counting", interest rates have experienced about seven waves of decline, and the bond market is approaching the end of historical regression in terms of the adjustment time window [1][6]. - The logic of rising interest rates has become more perfect with the assistance of inflation, constructing the market's consistent judgment of "strong stocks and weak bonds" for this year's major asset classes at the end of last year. However, after the first - quarter, stocks are not that strong and bonds are not that weak [1][3][13]. - The bond market is still in a strong "bearish thinking", but the bear - to - bull reversal conditions are emerging, and the left - side varieties can gradually shift from indifference to attention [3][31][33]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Interest Rate Upward Logic Becomes More Perfect - Inflation is realized: The inflation data announced on March 9th was good. The war logic in March pushed oil prices to around $100, reducing the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut and ensuring the转正 of PPI in March [8]. - Bond supply and demand: Since December last year, due to the bond selling and redemptions caused by banks' EVE indicator exceeding the standard, the market is worried about the new issuance of local and national bonds. The demand for long - term bonds from insurance and funds has decreased, while the supply of long - term bonds is large, making short - selling a mainstream strategy [14]. - The fundamentals are improving, and the deflator is rising: The export data from January to February was good, and the physical data was relatively strong. The relationship between oil prices, inflation, and GDP deflator is clear, strengthening the bearish bond market [14]. - The market expects the seasonal "small spring" of real estate to turn into a trend - like "bottom": The real estate in first - tier cities has recovered again, and the "stagflation" logic of real estate, especially in first - tier cities, is more attractive than last year [11]. Necessary Conditions for Bear Market Reversal are Met - Short - sellers have few chips: The duration of public funds has reached a very low level (about 2.8 years), and they are almost in a state of "observing from the sidelines" in long - term varieties such as 30 - year treasury bonds, with only over 30 billion yuan in long - term bonds held [15][16]. - Short - sellers need to borrow: The active selling mainly comes from securities companies' proprietary trading through short - selling by borrowing bonds, and the borrowing balance accounts for 50% of the floating market. The strategy of going long on old bonds and short on T6 has not made significant profits, and the unstable label may be shifting to short - sellers [18][20]. Unstable Inflation Narrative and Sufficient Term Spread Pricing - Over - overdraft of pricing: The spread between 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds has widened to 50 - 55 basis points, above the historical median level in 2010 and close to the 70% quantile level after adjusting for the static coupon. The odds of further steepening have significantly decreased [23]. - Unstable inflation narrative: This is the second round of inflation trading this year. The three expected inflation routes in January have not been realized. The inflation mechanism is difficult to fundamentally change the internal driving force of the bond market of weak credit and strong deposits [25]. - New deflation logic: The US stocks have not risen since the end of last year, and the Hong Kong stock technology sector has adjusted since January. The logic is that new AI companies are undermining the business models and valuations of old technology companies, triggering discussions on deflation caused by technological unemployment [2][28]. How to Participate in Left - Side Varieties - The bond market is still in a strong "bearish thinking", but the logic of supply - demand, inflation, and chips can be questioned. The market is more bearish than in January, but the cost - performance of the current point is not high [31][32]. - The bond bear market may end when short - sellers cover their positions, the narrative switches again, and attention returns to fixed - income assets. Left - side varieties can gradually participate in the end of the bear market [33][36].