输入型通胀交易手册
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2026-03-22 09:28
- Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report If the war persists, asset pricing may shift from "inflation" to "imported inflation," and the market needs to distinguish between them. The report reviews three instances of imported inflation triggered by wars in the last century and three inflation patterns in China since 2020, offering insights for trading in imported inflation [6][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Imported Inflation Experiences - First Oil Crisis (197310 - 197403): "Stagflation" emerged for the first time, with commodities leading in gains and smooth price transmission. The macro - trading clue shifted from "weak dollar" to "stagflation" trading. Commodities and the dollar rose, while U.S. stocks and bonds declined. Commodity price performance was energy > fertilizer > precious metals > base metals > agricultural products [21][23][26]. - Second Oil Crisis (1979 - 1980): With recession as the cost of aggressive interest - rate hikes, the U.S. got out of the stagflation shadow, and U.S. stocks performed best. The market was more about marginal inflation trading. Stocks > commodities > dollar > U.S. bonds. Inflation transmission was not smooth within commodities [28][31][34]. - Gulf War (199008 - 199101): It was a minor episode of "imported inflation" during the recession and interest - rate cut cycle, with bonds performing best and risk assets declining. Asset pricing was more like "recession" pricing [5][36][38]. Domestic Imported/Supply - Driven Inflation - Three Phases since 2020: They are the supply - driven inflation in the second half of 2021, the inflation triggered by the "Russia - Ukraine conflict" around March 2022, and the price rebound driven by "anti - involution" from July to October 2025. Commodities were dominant in all three phases, but the performance order of other assets varied. The impact of domestic imported or supply - driven inflation is relatively small, and it did not change the pricing logic of various assets [6][41][50]. Conclusion - Asset Performance Patterns: There is no unified pattern for the performance of major assets during imported inflation. The performance of major assets is related to the macro - environment, and the optimal asset in the portfolio could be stocks or bonds [52]. - Sub - Asset Performance: Energy commodities are relatively dominant, but the increase in crude oil prices is narrowing. Inflation transmission often fails to reach agricultural products. The longer the war lasts, the more unfavorable it is for non - ferrous metals. The logic of precious metals is relatively independent, and imported inflation has a catalytic impact on equity assets. Interest rates are affected by inflation expectations and monetary policies, and the domestic bond market is not sensitive to imported inflation [52][53][54].