20260322：棉花：预计市场焦点将转向新作种植

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell this week, maintaining an overall upward trend. The main 05 contract reached a high of 69.22 cents/pound, driven by China's issuance of a 300,000 - ton processing trade cotton import quota. However, due to poor weekly US cotton export data and concerns about a global economic recession, the futures prices declined later. It is expected that ICE cotton futures will have a higher bottom but will not show a trending upward movement for now [1][4]. - Domestic cotton futures declined this week. The announcement of an additional 300,000 - ton cotton processing trade import quota alleviated concerns about the tight supply in the 2025/26 cotton year. With good current demand, the market's optimistic demand expectations support Zhengzhou cotton futures. The market focus will shift to the new - year domestic cotton planting, and Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend, but new upward drivers are needed to reach new highs [1][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Trading Volume Change (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | Open Interest Change (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - continuous | 65.90 | 69.22 | 65.90 | 67.34 | 1.54 | 2.34 | 253,637 | 105,475 | 147,601 | - 7,780 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous | 15,445 | 15,600 | 15,035 | 15,215 | - 200 | - 1.30 | 2,079,076 | - 1,245,065 | 592,451 | - 132,870 | | Cotton Yarn Main - continuous | 21,590 | 21,650 | 21,270 | 21,475 | - 90 | - 0.42 | 59,085 | - 30,155 | 14,799 | 550 | [4] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell this week, maintaining an overall upward trend. The main 05 contract reached 69.22 cents/pound, driven by China's issuance of a 300,000 - ton processing trade cotton import quota. Later, due to poor US cotton export data and concerns about a global economic recession, the prices declined [4]. - As of the week ending March 12, 2026, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 44,600 tons, a 22% week - on - week decline and a 30% decrease from the four - week average. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 27,700 tons, with China signing 11,000 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 62,100 tons, a 26% week - on - week decline but an 8% increase from the four - week average. The total signed and sold volume of US upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 2.1919 million tons, accounting for 84% of the annual forecasted export volume. The cumulative export shipment volume was 1.2539 million tons, accounting for 57% of the total annual signed volume [5]. - India: The Cotton Association of India (CAI) raised the production and consumption forecasts for the 2025/26 season and lowered the ending inventory forecast. The production forecast was raised by 350,000 bales to 32.05 million bales (170 kg per bale), and the consumption forecast was raised by 1 million bales to 31.5 million bales. The import volume was expected to be 4.7 million bales, a 300,000 - bale reduction from the previous month's forecast, and the export volume remained at 1.5 million bales [5]. - Brazil: The Brazilian official forecasting agency CONAB slightly lowered the 2026 cotton production forecast. The cotton production was adjusted down to 3.795 million tons. In the first two weeks of March, the raw cotton export volume was about 172,300 tons, a significant increase compared to the same period last year. As of February, the cumulative export volume in this sales year reached 1.992 million tons, nearly 90,000 tons higher than the same period in the 2024/25 season [6]. - Bangladesh: As Ramadan approached, the import demand slowed down slightly. Local enterprises reduced production or suspended operations, and import procurement decreased. However, some buyers with rigid demand entered the market to replenish stocks. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East was expected to disrupt shipping and increase freight rates, and the recent sharp rise in oil prices also put pressure on the country's foreign exchange reserves, making it more difficult to open letters of credit for imports [6]. - Pakistan: The cotton import demand was moderate. The cotton - growing areas experienced continuous high - temperature and drought, with only sporadic rainfall in some areas. The cotton sowing progress in the early - sown areas of Sindh and Punjab was good. The current high cotton prices increased some cotton farmers' willingness to plant cotton compared to alternative crops. This week, the import demand was relatively moderate. Spinning enterprises were cautious about the rising futures prices and freight - driven basis quotes. Spinning enterprises with inventory shortages continued to seek to replenish orders and lock in supplies. The export value of the five major textile categories in February was $1.07 billion, a 24% month - on - month and 7% year - on - year decline. Most categories declined month - on - month, except for a slight month - on - month increase in cotton yarn exports. The cumulative export value in the first eight months of the 2025/26 fiscal year was about $10.08 billion, basically the same as the same period in the 2024/25 fiscal year [7]. - Southeast Asian textile industry's operating rates: As of the week ending March 20, the operating rate of Indian textile enterprises was 68%, the same as last week, March, and February's monthly average was 69.5%. The operating rate of Vietnamese textile enterprises was 72.5% this week, up from 70% last week, with a March monthly average of 70.17% and a February rate of 65.67%. The operating rate of Pakistani textile enterprises was 53% this week, down from 68.5% last week, with a March monthly average of 63.33% and a February monthly average of 69.5% [7]. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton prices fell, and trading improved. In the week of March 20, cotton futures and spot prices declined. Cotton spot trading was significantly better than the previous week. When Zhengzhou cotton prices fell on March 18, spinning enterprises increased their purchases. Later, as prices continued to fall, enterprises became more cautious. After the night session on Thursday, spot trading improved again. This week, the mainstream sales basis of cotton spot remained stable. Cotton merchants with more inventory were more willing to sell, and did not raise the basis after good sales. The prices of 2025/26 southern Xinjiang Kashi machine - picked 31 - grade double 29 with less than 3% impurity were mostly quoted at CF05 + 1100 or higher, and the higher quotes in northern Xinjiang were above 1400, with the mainstream negotiable price between 1300 - 1400, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [8]. - Cotton warehouse receipt situation: As of March 20, there were 12,400 registered warehouse receipts and 328 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 12,728 receipts, equivalent to 534,576 tons. There were 259 registered warehouse receipts for domestic cotton and 12,141 for Xinjiang cotton (including 1,655 in northern Xinjiang warehouses, 1,350 in southern Xinjiang warehouses, and 9,136 in inland warehouses) in the 2025/26 season [8]. - Downstream trading cooled slightly, and spinning mill profits improved. According to TTEB data, the trading in the pure - cotton yarn market cooled slightly compared to the previous period, and the overall inquiry activity declined. Inland spinning enterprises mainly focused on fulfilling existing orders. Except for the relatively slow - moving air - jet spun yarn with stable - to - decreasing market prices, the overall price of pure - cotton yarn was stable. The production schedules of regular yarn and combed high - count yarn basically covered the "Golden March" period, and some could extend to the "Silver April". Due to the tight inventory of imported yarn, after some enterprises lowered the prices of air - jet spun products, the order acceptance situation improved slightly. Affected by the international situation, the prices of other types of yarn increased. Driven by price - increase expectations, there was some purchasing and inventory - building behavior in local areas, and the downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases. In terms of cash flow, the immediate theoretical cash flow of Xinjiang spinning enterprises was about 1,200 yuan/ton, and that of inland spinning enterprises was about - 300 yuan/ton, showing an improvement compared to last week. Some inland spinning enterprises with high raw - material inventories made small profits. The trading atmosphere in the all - cotton grey fabric market weakened compared to last week, and the fabric mills' sales decreased. The in - production orders were still mainly domestic sales orders, and there was little improvement in export sales. The new orders of fabric mills decreased, and the orders could maintain production until the end of March or early April, and some large mills could produce until mid - to - late April. The grey fabric prices were lower than before, and fabric mills were eager to sell, with prices negotiable. Currently, fabric mills still had difficulty making a profit. In terms of operation, fabric mills maintained normal production with an operating rate of 60.5%. The decline rate of the finished - product inventory was slower than last week, and the current inventory of fabric mills was 24.8 days. Fabric mills maintained small - volume purchases based on orders [9]. 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including those on cotton sales progress, commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton inventory, weaving mill yarn inventory, spinning enterprise yarn inventory, cotton fabric enterprise cotton fabric inventory, yarn enterprise operating rate, cotton fabric enterprise operating rate, pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton fabric CGC32 profit, cotton 5 - 9 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [11][12][13] 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton futures rebounded from a low due to China's issuance of additional import quotas. However, the US cotton and international cotton markets currently lack further upward drivers. The situation in Iran has a two - way impact on ICE cotton. The rise in crude oil prices drives up commodity prices in sentiment but also raises the risk of a global economic recession. Attention should be paid to the cotton planting and production in major producing countries such as India, the US, and Brazil in 2026. It is expected that ICE cotton futures will have a higher bottom but will not show a trending upward movement for now. - Domestic cotton futures declined this week. The announcement of an additional 300,000 - ton cotton processing trade import quota alleviated concerns about the tight supply in the 2025/26 cotton year. With good current demand, the market's optimistic demand expectations support Zhengzhou cotton futures. The market focus will shift to the new - year domestic cotton planting, and Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend, but new upward drivers are needed to reach new highs [14]