棕榈油：基本面改善有限，跟涨逐渐乏力；豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆系高位回调

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main factors influencing the palm oil market are the war premium, changes in the interest - rate cut logic, and the game of risk - asset liquidity. Although the fundamental data's explanatory power for the market is decreasing, in the long - term, with factors such as the potential implementation of B50 and the possible impact of El Niño on production, there is an expectation of price increase. In the short - term, the war premium and bullish sentiment remain, and attention should be paid to the energy price trend. For the short - term, the real - world structure of palm oil is not good, but after the war premium fades and the oil price drops, if the production recovery and inventory reduction during Ramadan are slow, it may provide a pressure - release period in April - May, which could lead to a price bottom - building and enter a rising cycle [2][5]. - For soybean oil, after the US soybean oil breaks through 65 - 70 cents, the subsequent upward factors shift to the policy sentiment stimulus of RVO exceeding expectations and the further increase in crude oil prices. The fundamental repair is coming to an end, and the price difference between North American soybean oil, Malaysian palm oil, and South American soybean oil will gradually converge. RVO's announcement is likely to be postponed, and positions can be gradually reduced. With favorable weather in South American production areas and high global soybean inventory, the upward space for soybean oil is limited [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Last Week's Viewpoints and Logic - Palm Oil: The escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation dominated the palm oil trend last week. With the opening of China's import profit and the deterioration of India's import profit, the follow - up increase of both the 5 - 9 spread and the unilateral price of the palm oil 05 contract stagnated. The weak follow - up increase of the origin's quotation may imply a slow fundamental repair, suppressing the speculative sentiment of the upward movement of oils and fats. Under the stimulus of the rumor of an export ban last weekend, the price broke through 10,000 yuan/ton during Monday's trading session and then fell back, with a weekly decline of 0.59%. Bullish sentiment still exists, and attention should be paid to the energy price increase [1]. - Soybean Oil: The tense situation in Iran rapidly pushed up energy prices, which affected the cost side of the domestic soybean system through the direct cost - push effect. However, the meeting between Chinese and US leaders was postponed due to the war situation, and the weather for South American soybean harvesting improved. The US soybean performed weakly during the week, and the soybean oil fell 0.92% [1]. This Week's Viewpoints and Logic - Palm Oil: Beyond the internal fundamentals of agricultural products, the main factors are the war premium, changes in the interest - rate cut logic, and the game of risk - asset liquidity. The fundamental data's ability to explain the market has decreased significantly. Regarding the increase in palm biodiesel consumption, due to the large differences between Indonesia's biodiesel operation system and that of Europe and the United States, it is difficult to replace diesel when diesel imports are insufficient, and the 40% blending ratio is difficult to increase artificially. The continuous consumption of methanol inventory restricts the conversion of production profit to the startup rate. Considering the suppression of monthly demand by high diesel prices, there will be an additional demand of 150,000 tons per month from March to April at most. The domestic consumption and exports in Malaysia will be boosted by the European energy shortage. The early implementation of B50 under the long - term low POGO spread is also worth looking forward to, providing a story for 2027. In terms of production, the potential impact of El Niño in the far - term is yet to be discussed. Currently, the increase in the prices of fertilizers and related elements not only raises the cost but also cools down the high - yield logic affected by the increased fertilizer use in the fourth quarter of last year. Considering that the production in January - February has decreased smoothly, the potential driving force for lower - than - expected production from April to May due to less rainfall last year may increase, which is the reason for maintaining a long - position thinking before the geopolitical risk decreases. The biggest constraint in the current palm oil fundamentals is that the South American soybean oil quotation is favorable from March to April, India's CPO import and refining profits are too poor, and the inventory is not low enough. It is very likely to maintain extremely low imports from March to May, and India may start restocking until June at the earliest. Currently, the origin's quotation is weak in following the price increase, giving China import profit, and the India - Malaysia price difference is at a historical low. It is difficult to see that Indonesia's inventory is really tight, and the overall real - world structure is not good. Although the current market is dominated by expectation speculation and risk - preference sentiment, it is expected that after the war premium fades and the oil price drops, if the production recovery and inventory reduction during Ramadan are slow, a suitable pressure - release period in April - May may provide space for India to repair its import profit, leading to India's restocking cycle. Then, the palm oil price may complete another bottom - building and enter an upward cycle led by its own fundamentals and enter the "year of oils and fats" full of themes in 2027. In the short - term, the war premium and bullish sentiment remain, and attention should be paid to the energy price trend, along with proper position and risk - control operations [2][4][5]. - Soybean Oil: After the US soybean oil breaks through 65 - 70 cents, its cost - performance in the second - generation biodiesel is on par with Brazilian tallow and is about to be on par with the cost under China's 30.5% tariff. Therefore, the subsequent upward factors for US soybean oil shift to the policy sentiment stimulus of RVO exceeding expectations and the further increase in crude oil prices. The fundamental repair is coming to an end, and the price difference between North American soybean oil, Malaysian palm oil, and South American soybean oil will gradually converge. The announcement of RVO is likely to be postponed, and positions can be gradually reduced to cope with the increased volatility risk. The southern part of Brazil, which was short of water before, is expected to receive rainfall, which helps to alleviate the losses caused by the previous drought. Argentina will have normal to slightly more rainfall in the next two weeks, and the weather in South American production areas is favorable for crop growth. The global soybean inventory is still high, and there is pressure on the cost side of US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the results of subsequent China - US trade consultations. If China purchases US soybeans, Brazil will need to make significant concessions on the premium. Currently, the crushing profit is not bad, and there is no driving force for the premium to collapse. The soybean oil exports to India may support the soybean - palm oil price difference, but the upward space for the unilateral price is limited due to the arrival pressure in May and the high soybean oil inventory [4]. Disk Basic Market Data - Prices and Fluctuations: The opening price of the palm oil continuous contract was 9,750 yuan/ton, with a high of 10,050 yuan/ton, a low of 9,646 yuan/ton, a closing price of 9,718 yuan/ton, and a decline of 0.59%. The opening price of the soybean oil continuous contract was 8,660 yuan/ton, with a high of 8,758 yuan/ton, a low of 8,534 yuan/ton, a closing price of 8,628 yuan/ton, and a decline of 0.92%. The opening price of the rapeseed oil continuous contract was 9,800 yuan/ton, with a high of 9,995 yuan/ton, a low of 9,718 yuan/ton, a closing price of 9,876 yuan/ton, and an increase of 0.11%. The opening price of the Malaysian palm oil continuous contract was 4,637 ringgit/ton, with a high of 4,688 ringgit/ton, a low of 4,468 ringgit/ton, a closing price of 4,612 ringgit/ton, and an increase of 1.05%. The opening price of the CBOT soybean oil continuous contract was 67.07 cents/pound, with a high of 67.15 cents/pound, a low of 63.50 cents/pound, a closing price of 65.53 cents/pound, and a decline of 2.82% [7]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the palm oil continuous contract was 2,865,276 lots, a decrease of 724,413 lots, and the open interest was 319,450 lots, a decrease of 20,684 lots. The trading volume of the soybean oil continuous contract was 3,589,689 lots, a decrease of 1,161,334 lots, and the open interest was 594,096 lots, a decrease of 32,041 lots. The trading volume of the rapeseed oil continuous contract was 2,487,202 lots, a decrease of 356,096 lots, and the open interest was 237,433 lots, a decrease of 6,960 lots [7]. - Price Spreads: The rapeseed - soybean 05 spread was 1,248 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.34% compared with last week; the soybean - palm 05 spread was - 1,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11%; the palm oil 5 - 9 spread was 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48.28%; the soybean oil 5 - 9 spread was 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.82%; the rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread was 133 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.71% [7]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 621 lots, a decrease of 202 lots compared with last week; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 24,892 lots, a decrease of 822 lots; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 805 lots, a decrease of 320 lots [7]. Core Data of Oils and Fats Fundamentals - Production and Inventory: Malaysia's palm oil production in March may not increase significantly, and the inventory may continue to decline to about 2.3 million tons. Indonesia's year - end inventory is expected to return to a moderately loose level. The India - Malaysia price difference has recently dropped rapidly [9][10]. - Export and Price Difference: ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from March 1 - 20 were 1,191,962 tons, a 38.1% increase compared with the same period last month. The POGO price difference has dropped rapidly [10]. - Other Data: The price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra has increased slightly, and Indonesia's refining profit is at a high level. India's soybean oil import profit has increased rapidly, and the India's soybean - palm CNF price difference has stabilized and rebounded. The basis of palm oil (South China) for the 05 contract is - 20, and the basis of soybean oil (Jiangsu) has strengthened. The cumulative import volume of palm oil in the EU in 2026 has increased by 10,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume of the four major oils and fats in the EU in 2026 has increased by 110,000 tons [10][11][12].