南华国债期货周度报告：机构行为支撑中久期-20260322

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The bond market is mainly in a high - level shock state this week. The main trading logic is "abundant funds", and the shock pattern will continue. The 10Y and above bonds are relatively weak, while the 5 - 7Y bonds perform well. Neither imported inflation nor external demand recession has become the main line of the domestic market [15] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Futures and Bond Data - Futures prices: T2606 is 108.24, TF2606 is 105.7 with a 0.01% change, TS2606 is 102.522 with a 0.05% change, and TL2606 is 110.63 with a 0.43% change [3] - When - week data statistics: 10 - year, 5 - year, 2 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all showed declines in prices; there were changes in inter - period and cross - variety spreads; bond yields of different maturities had different changes, and some national development bond yields also changed; bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates and SHIBOR rates had corresponding weekly changes [8] 1.3 Market Thinking - In the bond market, the long - short game continues, and it may continue the high - level shock. The main trading logic is "abundant funds", and institutional behavior has a strong supporting effect on the bond market this week [15] 1.4 This Week's Focus 1.4.1 US - Iran Situation - The US - Iran conflict has escalated in a way that the US does not like. Trump postponed his visit to China, and Israel's actions have further escalated the conflict. The US is trying to ease the market, and the pressure of the Middle - East conflict on the mid - term elections has become obvious [16] 1.4.2 March FOMC - The Fed maintained its rate - cut stance but became marginally hawkish. It showed concern about oil prices. The statements of central banks of other economies raised the market's inflation expectations, causing the US dollar index to fall [17][18]