投资策略周报：历次海外冲击复盘，A股修复行情大有可为

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently confirming expectation discrepancies amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 3.38% this week[13] - Daily trading volume averaged 2.21 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 287.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week[13] Historical Resilience - Since 2020, A-shares have shown strong resilience against global shocks, with negative impacts typically concluding within a week[19] - Historical data indicates that after significant external shocks, A-share indices have generally recovered to pre-shock levels within one month, with a recovery probability of approximately 68.8% since 2020[24] Investment Strategy - During periods of external shocks, it is advisable to reduce positions and manage risks, with a focus on cash holdings to capture excess returns when market conditions stabilize[19] - In the rebound phase, sectors with strong policy support and supply-demand dynamics are expected to outperform, particularly in energy security and AI-related industries[6] Sector Allocation - Dividend-paying stocks are favored during adjustment periods, although they are not absolute safe havens; they still exhibit risk characteristics[27] - Key sectors during the current geopolitical tensions include coal, photovoltaic, hydropower, and energy storage, which are expected to benefit from rising industrial demand[33] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected macroeconomic policy changes and escalations in geopolitical tensions, which could impact market stability[44]