化肥行业保供稳价效果尚可，尿素期货价格大幅下跌现货价格基本稳定

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The fertilizer industry's supply guarantee and price stabilization measures have shown some effectiveness. The urea futures price has dropped significantly, while the spot price has remained relatively stable. The current fundamentals of both supply and demand are at their peak, but the sustainability of demand is weak. Policy signals indicate price stabilization. It is expected that the upward drive for urea futures in the later period will mainly come from the influence of other chemical futures, and the urea's own fundamentals and policy do not support the futures price to remain at the current level in the long term [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Supply: The weekly average daily output in different periods from March 13 - April 9, 2026, was 21.71, 20.86, 21.43, and 21.43 tons respectively. Last week, 6 new enterprises stopped production, 3 restarted, and this week, 1 enterprise is planned for maintenance and 2 stopped enterprises are expected to resume production [5] - Demand: Agricultural demand for wheat fertilization has started. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer in this cycle is 49.97%, a 4.41 - percentage - point increase from the previous cycle. The load in Hebei has increased significantly, and large - scale enterprises in Shandong and Henan continue to increase their loads. The load in Hubei remains stable due to weather - affected shipping. The compound fertilizer production in other regions is relatively stable. The consumption of urea for thermal power desulfurization and denitrification is expected to decline with the temperature rise [5] - Inventory: As of March 18, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 80.89 tons, a decrease of 14.87 tons or 15.53% from the previous cycle. The inventory continues to decline, and the market trading atmosphere is good with smooth sales [5] - Valuation: The production cost of the new coal - gasification process in Henan urea factories has increased due to the rise in coal prices. The current profit is at a reasonable level and is expected to remain stable [5] - Strategy: In the futures market, urea futures showed a unilateral downward trend this week. The government's strong supply - guarantee policies, including early release of reserves and tightened export policies, have put pressure on urea futures. Although the overseas urea price has soared, its impact on domestic futures is weak. The spot market is stable, and the basis of urea futures has returned [5] 3.2 Price - Domestic Urea Spot Price: The report presents the historical price trends of urea in Henan, Sichuan, and different - sized particles in Shanxi from 2022 - 2026 [7][8] - International Urea Price and Spread: It shows the historical data of small - particle urea's port - collection profit in Shandong, the cost difference between the Middle East and Shandong port - collection, and the FOB prices of small - particle urea in China and the Middle East from 2022 - 2026 [9][10] - Phosphate and Potassium Fertilizer Prices: The historical price trends of Hubei's monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, and Shandong's 60% potassium chloride powder from 2022 - 2026 are presented [12][13] - Urea Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - month Spread: The report shows the historical data of the closing price of the urea 05 - contract futures, the 5 - 9 spread, and the 05 - contract basis from 2021 - 2026 [14][15] 3.3 Supply - Urea Production: The historical data of China's weekly average daily urea production, natural - gas - based urea production, and coal - based urea production from 2022 - 2026 are presented [18][19] - Urea Cost and Profit: The historical price trends of smokeless medium - sized coal, bituminous coal, the marginal profit of the fixed - bed process in Shanxi, and the marginal profit of the new process in Henan from 2022 - 2026 are shown [21][22] - Urea Inventory and Apparent Consumption: The historical data of urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, domestic average daily apparent consumption, and enterprise - perspective average daily apparent consumption from 2022 - 2026 are presented [23][24] 3.4 Demand - Compound Fertilizer Industry: The historical data of the compound fertilizer enterprise's start - up rate and inventory from 2022 - 2026 are presented [27][28] - Melamine Industry: The historical data of melamine's weekly production, price, and the melamine/urea price ratio from 2023 - 2026 are presented [29][30] - Export: The historical data of China's monthly urea export volume and cumulative export volume from 2022 - 2026 are presented [31][32]