烧碱周报：供应下滑+出口增加双向驱动烧碱期货价格上涨-20260322

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The price of caustic soda futures has been rising, driven by a decline in supply and an increase in exports. The core driving logic is the significant fluctuation of crude oil prices leading to large - scale fluctuations in chemical futures prices, and chemical futures are affected by cost support, supply decline, and export increase. The conflict between the US and Iran has led to difficulties in ethylene exports from the Middle East, causing overseas PVC plants to reduce their loads, and domestic PVC enterprises that purchase ethylene externally have also reduced their loads, resulting in a passive reduction in the load of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises, which in turn has led to a significant increase in the export demand for domestic caustic soda. Although the price of high - concentration liquid caustic soda has risen significantly, the price of low - concentration liquid caustic soda remains relatively stable. There is a situation where the downstream has difficulty accepting high prices in chemical futures trading. It is expected that there will be a certain number of warehouse receipts, which will put pressure on the spot and futures markets. In the later stage, the logic of supply shortage and export volume increase still exists, but attention should be paid to the profit - taking of long positions and the basis regression when the overseas caustic soda procurement sentiment fades [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - Supply: In the week of 20260313 - 0319, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4%. The chlor - alkali load in North China and Central China declined, while in South China, the load increased due to the resumption of some previously overhauled equipment in Guangxi. In Southwest China, the local load declined because two new chlor - alkali equipment were put into trial operation without commercial output. It is estimated that the national chlor - alkali load will remain around 84% next week [5]. - Demand: As of March 19, 2026, the comprehensive startup rate in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 52.57%, a week - on - week increase of 2.42%. The startup rate in Shaoxing was 52.22%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.56%. The current dyeing factories are under the pressure of increased dyeing fees, and the downstream weaving's willingness to receive goods has weakened, leading to a market stalemate. The orders of dyeing factories are mainly "short - term and long - term less", and the proportion of long - term foreign trade orders continues to decline. Enterprises generally produce according to orders and stock up cautiously. The domestic market still has a rigid demand for spring and summer fabrics, but due to the high price of weaving raw materials and limited new orders, the bargaining space of dyeing factories has narrowed. It is expected that the startup rate of some small and medium - sized dyeing factories may decline at the end of the month, and the industry differentiation will intensify further [5]. - Export: From January to February, the export volume of caustic soda was 626,300 tons, including 480,500 tons of liquid caustic soda and 145,800 tons of flake caustic soda [5]. - Inventory: As of March 19, 2026, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 500,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 6.28% and a year - on - year increase of 20.22%. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in China this week was 28.02%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.39%. The storage capacity ratios of liquid caustic soda in the Northwest, North China, Central China, East China, and South China regions have all declined [5]. - Profit: This Friday, the average price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2,153 yuan/ton, the average price of liquid chlorine was 150 yuan/ton, and the chlor - alkali profit was 206 yuan/ton, which is at a historically low level. The weak performance of both chlorine and caustic soda has led to a low comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali [5]. 2. Price - Shandong Chlor - Alkali Spot Price: The report provides historical price data of Shandong 32% caustic soda minimum ex - factory converted to 100% price, the price difference between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, Shandong liquid chlorine price, and Shandong 50% caustic soda minimum ex - factory converted to 100% price from 2023 to 2026 [7][8]. - Flake Caustic Soda and Export Caustic Soda Price: It shows the historical price data of Shandong flake caustic soda from 2023 to 2026 and the FOB price of caustic soda in East China from 2024 to 2026 [10][11]. - Caustic Soda Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - Month Spread: The report presents the historical price data of the main caustic soda futures contract, the basis of the main 32% caustic soda contract in Shandong, the basis of the main 50% caustic soda contract in Shandong, and the spread between SH04 - SH05 contracts from 2024 to 2026 [12][13]. - Raw Salt and Coal Price: It provides the historical price data of Shandong sea salt market price from 2022 to 2026, Shandong well - mine salt market price from 2024 to 2026, and Qinhuangdao steam coal closing price from 2022 to 2026 [15][16]. 3. Supply - Caustic Soda Supply: The report shows the historical data of China's weekly caustic soda production, caustic soda startup rate, caustic soda plant loss volume, and cumulative caustic soda production from 2022 to 2026 [18][19]. - Caustic Soda Overhaul Situation: This week, Hubei Yihua in Central China, Leshan Fuhua in Southwest China, and Fujian Huanyang in East China are undergoing overhauls. In the future, Kesai Chemical in Central China, Baililian in Central China, Shandong Jinmao in North China, Shanxi Yushe in North China, and Jiangsu Haixing in East China have overhaul plans [21][22]. - Caustic Soda Inventory and Chlor - Alkali Profit: It provides the historical data of China's sample enterprises' liquid caustic soda inventory, caustic soda futures warehouse receipt quantity, caustic soda futures warehouse receipt (dry tons), and Shandong chlor - alkali enterprise profit from 2022 to 2026 [23][24]. 4. Demand - Alumina Industry: The report shows the historical data of China's alumina production, Shandong alumina production, alumina production in Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan, alumina spot price in Shandong, Shandong alumina enterprise's liquid caustic soda purchase price, electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory, alumina plant's alumina inventory (excluding Xinjiang), and alumina in - transit inventory from 2022 to 2026 [27][28][30][31]. - Textile Industry: It presents the historical data of viscose staple fiber capacity utilization rate, East China viscose staple fiber market price, viscose staple fiber factory inventory, Chinese cotton yarn enterprise's viscose staple fiber inventory available days, Chinese textile enterprise's weekly startup rate, Chinese textile enterprise's order days, Chinese textile enterprise's in - factory finished product inventory available days, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang region's dyeing factory startup rate from 2022 to 2026 [33][34][36][37]. - Pulp and Paper Industry: The report shows the historical data of pulp production, paper product production, upstream factory's paper product inventory available days, and China's machine - made paper and cardboard cumulative production from 2021 to 2026 [38][39]. - Export: It provides the historical data of China's monthly liquid caustic soda export volume, monthly flake caustic soda export volume, cumulative caustic soda export volume, and monthly caustic soda export volume from 2021 to 2026 [41][42].