国泰君安期货锡周报-20260322

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of tin is neutral, and the price range is 320,000 - 380,000 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, tin prices were weakly affected by macro - sentiment, with increased positions and falling prices during the week, reaching below 330,000 yuan at one point and then recovering. The tense situation in Iran and inflation concerns have pressured the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors. Central banks such as the Federal Reserve have not cut interest rates, showing concerns about rising inflation. On the fundamental side, the short - term tightness in the tin ore end has not changed significantly, and the production of most domestic smelting enterprises is restricted by raw material supply. The restart of production in Wa State, Myanmar, also faces difficulties. In terms of demand, the replenishment demand in the spot market has recovered, and the spot premium is high, indicating a tight supply - demand situation in the tin ingot end. Inventory has significantly decreased. Currently, the weak macro - sentiment due to the ongoing Iran issue conflicts with the short - term fundamental resilience of tin. There is certain support around 320,000 - 340,000 yuan, but in the context of weak macro - sentiment, it is necessary to pay attention to the stabilization of overseas equity markets and the non - ferrous sector. If it stabilizes, tin prices still have a good chance of recovery in the short term [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction Volume, Open Interest) 3.1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium is - 227 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium is 2,250 yuan/ton. Recently, the Baltimore premium has decreased [11][16] 3.1.2 Spread - This week, in the tin monthly structure, the 01 - 02 shows a B structure [20] 3.1.3 Inventory - This week, the domestic social inventory decreased by 2,380 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 2,787 tons. The LME inventory slightly increased, and the ratio of cancelled warrants rose to 7.96% [28][33] 3.1.4 Capital - As of this Friday, the settled capital of Shanghai tin is 2,681.27 million yuan, and the capital flow in the past 10 days is in the outflow direction [38] 3.1.5 Transaction Volume and Open Interest - This week, the trading volume of Shanghai tin increased, and the open interest decreased. The trading volume of LME tin increased, and the open interest decreased [40][45] 3.1.6 Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the open interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin rebounded [50] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In December 2025, the output of tin concentrate was 5,335 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.90%. In February 2026, the import volume was 17,144 tons, a year - on - year increase of 96.04%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 88.01%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 16,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan remained at 12,000 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss level rebounded [54][55] 3.2.2 Smelting - In February 2026, the domestic tin ingot output was 11,490 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.22%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 68.51%, a decrease from last week [61][63] 3.2.3 Import - In February 2026, the domestic tin ingot import was 2,168 tons, the export was 1,216 tons, and the net import was 952 tons. Among them, the tin ingot imported from Indonesia to China was 1,510 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 3,114 yuan/ton [70] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Users) 3.3.1 Consumption - In February 2026, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 12,442 tons, and the actual consumption was 10,176 tons [78] 3.3.2 Tin Products - This week, the downstream processing fee decreased. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in February decreased to 39%. The output of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in December slightly increased, and the sales volume slightly decreased [81] 3.3.3 End - User Consumption - In December 2025, the output of end - user products such as integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances increased. The household appliance consumption increased month - on - month, while the automobile consumption decreased month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded [88][90][96]