白糖市场周度报告：郑糖纠结上涨，关注外盘上涨的持续性-20260322

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - International sugar market: ICE raw sugar rose this week due to concerns about supply prospects. High crude oil prices are expected to significantly reduce the sugar - cane ratio in Brazil, which will boost the sugar market. In the next season, the global sugar supply may be tight, supporting the upward trend of international sugar prices. Although there is a large accumulation of production in Thailand, the pressure is gradually being released. The overall production estimate of India has declined compared to before, and the production estimate of Thailand has also been revised downwards [4]. - Domestic sugar market: The peak period of domestic sugar supply has been reached, with a year - on - year increase putting pressure on the market. The import of out - of - quota processed sugar has not yet increased significantly. The domestic sugar price still faces pressure to rise following the international sugar price. In the new week, attention should be paid to the changes in the internal - external price difference and the final output of domestic sugar [4]. - Futures and spot: The basis is expected to weaken [4]. - Trading strategies: Adopt an oscillating rebound approach for single - side trading; continue to hold previously sold out - of - the - money call options, and hold recently sold out - of - the - money put options at low prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic and International Sugar Price Summary - ICE raw sugar main contract rose from 1441 to 1563, a week - on - week increase of 8.47%, with an expected trend of oscillating stronger [2]. - ICE white sugar main contract rose from 415.9 to 450.6, a week - on - week increase of 8.34%, with an expected trend of oscillating stronger [2]. - Zhengzhou sugar main contract decreased from 5447 to 5439, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%, with an expected trend of oscillating stronger but slightly weaker following the external market [2]. - Brazilian processed sugar costs (50% and 15%) and Thai processed sugar costs (50% and 15%) all increased, with an expected trend of oscillating stronger [2]. - Spot prices in Guangxi Nanning, Yunnan Kunming, and Hebei Caofeidian all decreased, with an expected trend of oscillation [2]. - Import processing sugar profits (both out - of - quota and in - quota) and import disk profits (both out - of - quota and in - quota) all decreased, with a trend of being under pressure [2]. 3.2 Sugar Valuation This Week - The basis in Nanning, Kunming, and Yingkou all decreased, with an expected trend of oscillating weaker [3]. - The spreads of Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 and 5 - 7 remained unchanged, with an expected trend of oscillating weaker [3]. - The delivery costs of Guangxi, Yunnan, and Yingkou processed sugar all decreased slightly, with an expected trend of small fluctuations [3]. 3.3 Key Data and Strategies in the Sugar Market This Week - Key data: The sales - to - production ratios of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar decreased, with negative impacts. The industrial inventories of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar increased. The import volume of sugar decreased, but the import was still strong. The sugar production in Thailand and India increased, while the sugar production in Brazil decreased as it entered the harvest stage [4]. - Strategies and views: As mentioned in the core views, including international and domestic sugar market analysis, futures - spot situation, and trading strategies [4]. 3.4 Domestic Sugar Market Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2022/23 to 2025/26, the sown area, yield per unit, and sugar production are expected to increase. The import volume will remain relatively stable, and the consumption will increase slightly. The balance change will shift from a deficit to a surplus [5]. 3.5 This Week's Market Spot and Spread Data Tracking - Spot prices and basis: Spot prices rebounded under pressure and then declined, and the basis weakened. The supply of spot goods is large, and the post - holiday restocking demand has increased. The low - buying support has led to a rebound in futures, but the basis is still in a weakening trend. Attention should be paid to the listing rhythm and price changes of new sugar in the main producing areas of Guangxi and Yunnan [9][11]. - Inter - month spreads: The 5 - 7 spread oscillated lower [12]. - Internal - external spreads: The import cost rebounded, and the out - of - quota import processing sugar disk profit shrank rapidly. The in - quota import profit is relatively large, over a thousand yuan [16][18]. 3.6 Market Key Data Overview - International market: - Brazil: The sugar production decreased month - on - month, the sugar - cane ratio decreased sharply, the cumulative sugar production in the current season increased slightly year - on - year, and the production in the next season may decrease. The sugar export in February increased, and the Brazilian real exchange rate depreciated [22][28]. - Thailand and India: The production has started, with expected production increases putting pressure on the market. Thailand's sugar - pressing has accelerated, and attention should be paid to the production changes [32]. - Domestic market: - China: The sugar production has increased, and the consumption is expected to slightly decrease. The sales - to - production ratio in February was poor, the inventory accumulation expanded, the import volume of sugar increased, the import of syrup/pre - mixed powder is expected to decrease due to stricter policy control, the downstream demand is not bad but not excellent, and the downstream market has insufficient support [36][40][42][46][50][53].