加息预期升温，黄金大跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is "volatile" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - London gold dropped 10% to $4,492 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose to 4.38%, inflation expectation was 2.38%, real interest rate rose to 1.99%, the US dollar index fell 0.7% to 99.5, the S&P 500 index dropped 1.9%, the offshore RMB was volatile, and the domestic market maintained a premium [2] - The situation in the Middle East has further escalated, increasing global inflation risks and tightening monetary policy expectations. Except for crude oil and agricultural products, industrial products such as precious metals and non - ferrous metals have all declined. Gold has dropped significantly to the previous low level [3] - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in March, with a hawkish statement. The dot - plot shows that the expectation of interest rate cuts has dropped to once. The Fed is more worried about inflation than the job market in the short term, so the willingness to cut interest rates is low. In a stagflation situation, the Fed is in a dilemma. If the market starts to trade that the Fed lags behind inflation, funds may flow into gold again [3] - The Bank of England and the ECB kept interest rates unchanged. The market's expectation of interest rate hikes has further increased, and the market's expectation of an ECB interest rate hike has been advanced to May [3] - The navigation of the Strait of Hormuz and the rhythm of the war will continue to dominate the market trend. The gold price has some support around $4,400 - $4,500 per ounce, but the volatility is high, and there is no obvious expectation of a cease - fire in the market. It is hard to say that the gold price has stabilized, and it is necessary to wait before bottom - fishing [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) changed from - 1.75 yuan/gram last week to 1.38 yuan/gram this week, with a change rate of - 178.9% [10] - The domestic - foreign futures price difference (domestic - foreign) increased from 18.19 yuan/gram last week to 45.36 yuan/gram this week, with a change rate of 149.3% [10] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased from 105,417 kg last week to 106,845 kg this week, with a change rate of 1.4% [10] - The COMEX gold inventory decreased from 32,551,562 ounces last week to 32,054,275 ounces this week, with a change rate of - 1.53% [10] - The SPDR ETF holding volume decreased from 1071.56 tons last week to 1056.99 tons this week, with a change rate of - 1.36% [10] - The CFTC gold speculative net long position increased from 102,236 lots last week to 105,920 lots this week, with a change rate of 3.6% [10] - The US Treasury yield increased from 4.28% last week to 4.39% this week, with a change rate of 2.6% [10] - The US dollar index decreased from 100.50 last week to 99.51 this week, with a change rate of - 0.99% [10] - The SOFR decreased from 3.65% last week to 3.62% this week, with a change rate of - 0.8% [10] - The US 10 - year break - even interest rate increased from 2.3796% last week to 2.3861% this week, with a change rate of 0.27% [10] - The S&P 500 index decreased from 6,632 last week to 6,506 this week, with a change rate of - 1.9% [10] - The VIX volatility index decreased from 27.2% last week to 26.8% this week, with a change rate of - 1.5% [10] - The gold cross - market arbitrage trading increased from 7.0 to 7.2 this week, with a change rate of 2.6% [10] - The US 10 - year real interest rate increased from 1.90% last week to 1.99% this week, with a change rate of 5.1% [10] 3.2 Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 3.2.1 US Financial Market - The US dollar index dropped 0.7%, and the US Treasury yield rose to 4.38% [14] - The S&P 500 dropped 1.9%, and the VIX index fell back to 26.8 [14] - The US overnight secured financing rate was 3.62% [17] - Oil prices rose 12%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.38% [17] 3.2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Most developed - country stock markets declined, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.9% [21] - Most developing - country stock markets declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 3.38% [21] - The real interest rate rose to 1.99%, and the gold price dropped 10% [22] - The spot commodity index declined, and the US dollar index dropped 0.7% [22] - US and German bonds rose, and the US - German spread was 1.33% [25] - The UK Treasury yield was 4.99%, and the Japanese bond yield was 2.28% [25] - The euro appreciated 1.34%, and the pound sterling appreciated 0.83% [28] - The yen appreciated 0.31%, and the Swiss franc appreciated 0.39% [28] - The US dollar index dropped 0.71% to 99.6, and non - US currencies had mixed performance [30] 3.3 Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - Gold speculative position data [33] - The SPDR gold ETF holding volume fell back to 1,056 tons [33] - The RMB stopped rising and turned to depreciation, and the domestic market became at a premium [36] - Gold and silver prices declined, and the gold - silver ratio rose back to 66 [36] 3.4 Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: Trump threatened to limit Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours [37] - Tuesday: Denmark held early elections, and the eurozone and the US released March manufacturing PMI [37] - Wednesday: The Bank of Japan released the minutes of its January interest - rate meeting [37] - Thursday: The Norwegian central bank held an interest - rate meeting, and the US released initial jobless claims [37] - Friday: China released industrial enterprise profits for January - February [37]