聚乙烯产业链周报：地缘政治扰动，价格偏强震荡-20260322

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The PE spot market price fluctuated and strengthened. The intraday basis quotation fluctuated and weakened. The basis quotation in North China on Friday was around 05 - 520. The price of polyethylene is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term, but there is a risk of correction [50]. - Upstream device load reduction has increased, which will have a relatively large impact on the expected output, with some upstream delaying the delivery plan. The spot trading in the middle - stream has slightly deteriorated, and some agents continue to sell off due to poor spot liquidity. The situation of downstream panic - buying has eased, and the inventory has gradually become abundant after the previous stock - replenishment [7]. - Pay attention to the intraday basis trading opportunities, and the 5 - 9 positive spread should temporarily leave the market. Adopt a short - term strong - volatile thinking, but beware of correction risks. Consider buying put options [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - The main issue is the impact of geopolitical disturbances on the polyethylene market. The price is in a strong and volatile state, and the upstream production is affected by device load reduction, while the downstream demand has changed after stock - replenishment [1][7] 3.2 Polyethylene Industry Situation 3.2.1 Supply - Production: This week's output slightly decreased from 683,200 tons last week to 664,000 tons, a decrease of 19,200 tons. Next week and the week after, it is expected to continue to decrease due to device load reduction [5]. - Import and Export: The import volume this week remained at 232,300 tons, the export volume was 25,000 tons, and there was no change compared with last week. In February, the import volume was 1,028,400 tons and the export volume was 81,100 tons [5]. 3.2.2 Demand - Apparent Demand: This week's apparent demand increased slightly from 861,900 tons last week to 922,000 tons, an increase of 60,200 tons [5]. - Downstream: The downstream panic - buying situation has eased, and the inventory has gradually become abundant after the previous stock - replenishment [7]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Total Inventory: This week, there was a small - scale destocking, with the total inventory decreasing from 1,238,300 tons last week to 1,187,600 tons, a decrease of 50,700 tons [5]. - Upstream Inventory: The upstream inventory decreased from 575,400 tons last week to 568,300 tons, a decrease of 7,100 tons. Among them, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased from 505,000 tons to 502,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons; the coal - chemical industry inventory decreased from 70,400 tons to 66,300 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons [5]. - Mid - stream Inventory: The mid - stream inventory decreased from 662,900 tons last week to 619,300 tons, a decrease of 43,600 tons [5]. 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - Cost: The crude oil price increased significantly from $103.14 last week to $108.65, driving the cost to rise significantly. The oil - based PE cost increased from 9,860 yuan/ton to 10,273 yuan/ton. The coal - based PE cost remained unchanged at 6,395 yuan/ton [6]. - Profit: The overall profit of the oil - chemical end decreased from - 3,806 yuan/ton to - 4,779 yuan/ton, a decrease of 973 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - based PE decreased from 1,805 yuan/ton to 1,705 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The weighted profit of PE by production capacity decreased from - 2,593 yuan/ton to - 3,429 yuan/ton, a decrease of 836 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2.5 Price Difference - Basis: The basis has fluctuated greatly recently. The North China basis decreased from - 170 to - 520, the East China basis decreased from 180 to - 320, and the South China basis decreased from 380 to - 20 [6]. - Inter - month Spread: The inter - month spread began to weaken. The 1 - 5 inter - month spread increased from - 550 to - 496, the 5 - 9 inter - month spread decreased from 271 to 214 [6]. - Variety Spread: The HD - LL spread in North China decreased from 0 to - 130, and the LD - LL spread in North China decreased from 3,050 to 2,800 [6]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - The basis has shown significant fluctuations. The North China, East China, and South China bases have all weakened. The inter - month spread has also changed, with the 5 - 9 spread showing a downward trend, and the 1 - 5 spread slightly increasing. The variety spreads such as HD - LL and LD - LL have also changed to some extent [6] 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Short - term Outlook: The price is expected to be strong and volatile, but there is a risk of correction [7]. - Strategies: Pay attention to intraday basis trading opportunities, and the 5 - 9 positive spread should temporarily leave the market. Adopt a short - term strong - volatile thinking, but beware of correction risks. Consider buying put options [7]