国泰君安期货：聚烯烃周报-20260322

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report Plastic - The raw material logistics is blocked, and the supply contraction expectation supports the near - end strength. The geopolitical conflict continues to escalate, and the oil price provides cost support. The supply - side contraction is gradually realized, and the polyolefin price is strong. However, the demand resistance in the past two weeks has led to the profit compression of derivatives [6]. - The downstream demand continues to recover, but it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream cost transmission. The inventory has started to decline, and the basis has weakened [6]. - In terms of strategies, it is recommended to be bullish on the unilateral, wait and see on the inter - period, and wait and see on the inter - variety [6]. Polypropylene - The shortage of raw materials leads to the simultaneous reduction of cracking and PDH, and the supply side has strong support. The cost of raw materials such as crude oil and propane continues to rise, and the total weighted profit is compressed. The supply center will decline month - on - month, and the price may be strong in Q1 [99]. - The downstream demand is differentiated, and the cost transmission of some products is difficult. The basis has weakened, and the inventory needs to be consumed and the supply needs to be continuously reduced to support the price transmission [99]. - In terms of strategies, it is recommended to be bullish on the unilateral with high risks, wait for inventory digestion in the inter - period, and wait and see on the inter - variety [99]. Summary According to the Directory Plastic Part Price & Spread - The futures price has increased, and the basis has weakened. The 5 - 9 month spread has also weakened. The import window is closed, and the import profit of LD has been significantly compressed. The non - standard spread shows that the ratio of HD and LD to the standard product has weakened [8][14][24][26]. - The upstream prices of crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene have increased, while the coal price has remained stable. The oil - based profit has been compressed, while the coal - based and ethane - based profits have been significantly repaired, and the profit of externally purchased ethylene has reached a new low [31][37]. Supply - The new capacity from the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025 has been put into production intensively, and the nominal capacity growth rate has reached 19.2%, with an effective capacity growth rate of 16.7%. The supply is expected to contract significantly due to geopolitical conflicts, and the standard product production ratio has declined [42][44][50]. - The maintenance plan in March has increased, and if the geopolitical situation persists, the incremental reduction and maintenance may continue to increase, with the operating rate approaching 70% [53]. - The import is expected to decline month - on - month due to shipping delays and geopolitical uncertainties [58]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream operating rate has continued to recover, but the profit has been in a loss state. The demand for agricultural films has a seasonal improvement, while the new orders for other products have slowed down. The raw material inventory of downstream enterprises is not high, and they mainly purchase on a rigid - demand basis [6][74][80][86]. - The total supply is expected to contract, and the upstream inventory has started to decline [66]. Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - The futures price has increased, the basis has weakened, and the 5 - 9 month spread has also weakened. The export signing of PP has improved, but the domestic acceptance is limited. The import profit has been compressed [102][107][113]. - The upstream prices of crude oil, naphtha, and propylene have increased significantly, and the coal price has remained stable. The overall profit has been compressed, the PDH - based valuation has remained low, the coal - based profit has been repaired, and the propylene - based process has been in a loss state [126][133]. Supply - The new capacity from the end of 2024 to the middle of 2025 has been put into production on a large scale, with an effective capacity growth rate of 12.7%. The supply is expected to decline significantly, and the operating rate may drop below 65% in April [142][99]. - The oil - based production has declined, and the PDH - based maintenance has been relatively high. The supply contraction will continue, and attention should be paid to the implementation [149]. - The import is expected to decline, and the export has increased significantly, but part of it comes from the processing trade of southern China's plants [158]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream operating rate is differentiated. The operating rate of plastic weaving and injection molding has declined slightly in the off - season, while the demand for BOPP and modification has been stable. The cost transmission of some products is difficult, and the resistance of other products has increased [99]. - The supply is expected to decline significantly, and the upstream inventory has been decreasing seasonally [167].