国泰君安期货铂钯周报-20260322

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Platinum and palladium face continuous selling risks, with platinum being relatively weaker and palladium being also on the weak side. The price ranges are 460 - 540 yuan/gram for Guangbo Platinum and 330 - 410 yuan/gram for Guangbo Palladium. The market sentiment is fragile, and the precious metals sector may be the first to be sold off if liquidity is withdrawn. The report maintains the view that platinum is stronger than palladium, and the platinum - palladium ratio will continue to widen. It is necessary to closely monitor the import data of platinum and palladium before May 2026 [3]. Summary by Directory Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Funds, and Positions) - Trading Volume and Open Interest: As of the end of this week, the total open interest of Guangbo Platinum is 23,640 lots, with a trading volume of 41,280 lots; the total open interest of Guangbo Palladium is 9,264 lots, with a trading volume of 17,458 lots. This week, the open interest of platinum and palladium decreased slightly, while the trading volume increased. The trading volume and open interest of the main contracts are significantly larger than those of non - main contracts [6]. - Platinum - Palladium Ratio: This week, palladium finally broke through, showing a weak market trend in line with high - frequency data, causing the platinum - palladium ratio to further widen. The London platinum - palladium ratio reached 1.37, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum - palladium ratio was 1.38. It is expected that palladium will remain weak, and the platinum - palladium ratio still has room to widen [12]. - Overseas Spot - Futures Spread: For platinum, the spread between London platinum spot and New York platinum main contract was inverted except on Thursday, indicating tight supply of London goods. The spread between New York platinum continuous and New York platinum main contract fluctuated and converged, with a weekly average of $9.9 per ounce. For palladium, the spread between London palladium spot and New York palladium main contract was inverted on Tuesday and Wednesday. The spread between New York palladium continuous and New York palladium main contract fluctuated and increased, with a weekly average of - $41.1 per ounce [14][16]. - Arbitrage Analysis: - Platinum spot - futures positive arbitrage: The cost is 4.1 yuan/gram, and the spread is 0.87 yuan/gram, so there is no arbitrage space [19]. - Palladium spot - futures positive arbitrage: The cost is 2.9 yuan/gram, and the spread is 21.9 yuan/gram, with a profit window of 19 yuan/gram [21]. - Platinum near - far month cross - month positive arbitrage: The cost is 6.8 yuan/gram, and the spread is - 4.7 yuan/gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [23]. - Palladium near - far month cross - month positive arbitrage: The cost is 5.0 yuan/gram, and the spread is - 1.0 yuan/gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [25]. - Platinum internal - external arbitrage: The cost is 59.7 yuan/gram, and the spread is 71.8 yuan/gram, with a profit window of 12.1 yuan/gram [27]. - Palladium internal - external arbitrage: The cost is 43.1 yuan/gram, and the spread is 44.5 yuan/gram, with almost no arbitrage space [29]. - Platinum import parity calculation: The cost is 58.1 yuan/gram, and the spread is 76.2 yuan/gram, with a profit window of 18.1 yuan/gram [31]. - Palladium import parity calculation: The cost is 43.3 yuan/gram, and the spread is 46.4 yuan/gram, with almost no arbitrage space [33]. - Recycling Spread: This week, the recycling discount of platinum further converged to 65 yuan/gram, while the recycling discount of palladium remained at about 55 yuan/gram [36]. - ETF Holdings: This week, the platinum ETF holdings decreased by 1.27 tons (about 40,700 ounces), and the palladium ETF holdings decreased by 1.69 tons (about 54,400 ounces). The continuous outflow of platinum and palladium ETFs indicates a pessimistic investment sentiment, and the market is expected to remain sluggish [38]. Fundamental Aspect (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - Forward Discount Rate: The 1 - month forward rate of palladium showed a premium this week. The forward discount of platinum remained this week, with an annualized rate of over - 5% for all terms. The forward structure of palladium continued to be loose, and the 1 - month rate was at a premium [43]. - Inventory and Registered Warehouse Receipt Ratio: - Platinum: This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory decreased slightly, reaching 579,300 ounces (about 18.01 tons) on Friday, and the proportion of registered warehouse receipts was 53.2% [44]. - Palladium: This week, the NYMEX palladium inventory increased significantly to 248,400 ounces (about 7.73 tons), and the proportion of registered warehouse receipts increased to 85.3% [47]. - China's Import - Export Data: - Platinum: Since September 2025, platinum exports have increased sharply, and imports and net inflows have diverged. Since January 2020, the cumulative net inflow has been 561.2 tons. In January and February 2026, imports decreased compared with December 2025. In January, 4.62 tons were imported, and in February, 4.4 tons were imported. In January, the export volume was also relatively large, with a net inflow of 3.29 tons in January and 4.03 tons in February [54]. - Palladium: Since 2020, there has been almost no palladium export, showing a pure import state, and the cumulative net inflow has been 177.9 tons. In January 2026, 2.76 tons were imported, with a net inflow of 2.76 tons. In February, imports increased significantly to 4.4 tons, with a net inflow of 4.4 tons [54]. - London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance: - Platinum: This week, the London platinum fixing supply - demand balance was negative on only three trading days, with a weekly average of 41.6 kg [56][57]. - Palladium: This week, the London palladium fixing supply - demand balance was positive for five days, with a weekly average of 126.5 kg [58][59].