聚丙烯产业链周报：地缘政治扰动，盘面偏强震荡-20260322

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The polypropylene market is affected by geopolitical disturbances, with the market showing a strong and volatile trend. Upstream device load reduction has increased, affecting production. Demand will continue to strengthen slightly next week, and inventory will continue to decline. Cost is on the rise, and there is no sign of a decline. The 5 - 9 positive spread is weakening, and it is recommended to leave the market. It is advisable to adopt a bullish - but - cautious approach in trading and consider buying put options [6][7][8][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - No specific content provided in the given text. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand Situation Supply - This week's production increased slightly to 72.79 million tons, with an increase of 0.53 million tons compared to last week. In the next two weeks, more devices will undergo maintenance or load reduction. The import volume remains stable at 6.60 million tons per week, and the export volume is 5.40 million tons per week. In February, imports were 20.6 million tons, and exports were 24.4 million tons [6]. - There are many unexpected PP maintenance cases. Multiple companies have announced device maintenance plans, which will affect future production [15][18]. - In 2025, new PP production capacity of 455.5 million tons was put into operation, and in 2026, it is planned to put into operation 610 million tons of new production capacity [20]. Demand - Currently, downstream demand is not very good [41]. Inventory - This week, there was a slight reduction in inventory. The total inventory decreased from 93.84 million tons last week to 86.17 million tons this week, a decrease of 7.67 million tons. It is expected that inventory will continue to decline next week, and the impact of upstream production cuts is expected to be evident [6]. 3.3 Polypropylene Basis and Spread Basis - The spot basis fluctuates greatly. The East China basis decreased from 0 last week to - 320 this week, and the North China basis decreased from - 200 to - 320. The South China basis decreased from - 100 to - 170 [8]. Spread - The 5 - 9 positive spread is starting to weaken, and it is recommended to leave the market temporarily. The 5 - 9 spread decreased from 535 last week to 433 this week, a decrease of 102 [8]. - The fiber - to - filament spread decreased from 250 to 100, and the copolymer - to - filament spread increased from 250 to 300. The pellet - to - powder spread in North China increased from 0 to 290, and in East China, it decreased from 0 to - 40 [8]. - The PP - 3MA spread on the 01 contract increased from - 214 to - 157, and on the 05 contract, it decreased from 188 to - 377. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on PP and short on MA [8]. - The LL - PP spread on the 01 contract decreased from 220 to 151, on the 05 contract, it decreased from - 187 to - 201, and on the 09 contract, it decreased from 77 to 18 [8]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook Upstream, Mid - stream, and Downstream Views - Upstream: The situation of upstream device load reduction has intensified, and production is expected to be affected. Some upstream companies have postponed their delivery plans [10]. - Mid - stream: Spot trading has slightly worsened. Some factories are selling a large amount of goods due to poor spot liquidity and concerns about difficulties in selling when prices fall [10]. - Downstream: The situation of downstream goods - grabbing has eased. After replenishing inventory in the early stage, inventory has gradually become sufficient [10]. Strategies - Pay attention to the opportunity of cash - and - carry arbitrage. Consider leaving the 5 - 9 positive spread. There is currently no cross - variety strategy. It is recommended to adopt a bullish - but - cautious approach in single - side trading and beware of callback risks. Consider buying put options [10].