纸浆周度报告-20260322

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp price is expected to be narrowly consolidated in the short - term. The sustainability of the futures rebound needs to be observed, and the upside space is limited without new positive support. The spot price will continue to be constrained by high inventory and weak demand, and it is difficult to follow the rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the trend of the foreign market quotation and the change of downstream procurement willingness. If the far - month price drops significantly, one can try to go long at low prices. Currently, it is advisable to observe the price [97]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industry News - As of March 19, 2026, the inventory of pulp in Changshu Port was 501,000 tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 21.2%. The inventory in Qingdao Port was 1,593,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The inventory in Gaolan Port was 67,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 48.9%. The total inventory of Chinese pulp in mainstream ports was 2,297,000 tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% [5][6]. - In February 2026, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp was 580,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.3%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 1,419,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.0%. The import volume of bleached hardwood pulp was 1,471,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 2,987,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 5.0% [6]. 3.2 Market Data - As of March 20, 2026, the basis of silver star pulp was - 14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150.00% from the previous period; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.43% from the previous period; the price difference between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period [12]. - On March 20, 2026, the 05 - 07 month spread was - 58 yuan/ton, a decrease of 93.33% from the previous period; the 07 - 09 month spread was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78.57% from the previous period [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp decreased this period. The import profits of softwood and hardwood pulp decreased month - on - month. During the pulp week, the import offer of wood pulp was under negotiation [22][28]. - The price of the main pulp contract declined, and the transaction atmosphere in the imported softwood pulp market was light. The spot price declined with the market. The spot price of imported hardwood pulp declined slightly [30][34]. - The prices of natural color pulp and chemimechanical pulp also showed certain changes. For example, on March 20, 2026, the price of Venus pulp was 4,800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03%; the price of Kunhe pulp was 3,800 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period [39]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase prices of paper enterprises in East China showed a slight differentiation this week [41]. - The price of domestic chemimechanical pulp continued to decline this period. The operating load rates and production volumes of domestic chemimechanical pulp and hardwood pulp remained stable [45][47]. - In January 2026, the pulp inventory in European ports decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the global pulp shipping volume continued to decline in November 2025 [49]. - In January 2026, the shipping volume of W20 softwood pulp was at a low level and the inventory was high; the inventory of hardwood pulp decreased, the shipping volume increased, and the inventory days dropped to a year - on - year low [53]. - In January 2026, the export volume of softwood pulp from five countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, Sweden, and the United States) to China continued to increase month - on - month. In February 2026, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China decreased seasonally, which was at a normal level year - on - year [57]. - In January 2026, the export volume of hardwood pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) to China decreased month - on - month. In February 2026, the export volumes of Brazilian and Uruguayan hardwood pulp to China increased month - on - month, while the export volume of Chilean hardwood pulp to China decreased month - on - month, exceeding the seasonal impact [63]. - From January to February 2026, the cumulative import volume of softwood pulp in China decreased by 6.96% year - on - year, and that of hardwood pulp decreased by 5.04% year - on - year [65]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic offset paper market rose slightly this period. The supply of goods in the market continued to be loose, the profit level of the industry was low, the end - user demand had no improvement, and the market was in a stalemate [69]. - The domestic coated paper market was stable with minor fluctuations. The supply of goods in the market decreased slightly, the industry profit was still in a negative state, the end - user demand had no obvious change, and traders were still cautious in purchasing [73]. - The white cardboard market was mainly stable. The price was supported by the paper mills' price increase notice, but the demand was weak [77]. - The household paper market was sorted out within a range. The end - user demand was not strong, the raw material pulp price fluctuated, and the support for the household paper price was insufficient [81]. - In December 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, Chinese and Western medicines, and tobacco and alcohol products increased significantly month - on - month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month, which was basically in line with the seasonal trend. The retail sales of cultural and office supplies and cosmetics were at a high level year - on - year [87]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of March 20, 2026, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in the warehouse was 165,100 tons, a decrease of 4.16% from the previous period; the warehouse receipt quantity in the factory warehouse was 17,000 tons, with no change from the previous period [88]. - The port inventory was at a high level within the year. The inventory of mainstream ports in China showed a destocking trend this period. The inventory in Qingdao Port continued to increase slightly, and the inventory in Changshu Port decreased significantly [94].