美债双周报：美联储维持利率不变，美债收益率走高-20260322

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - As of March 20, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 24bp in two weeks to 4.39%, and the yield curve steepened bearishly. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, Powell's stance was hawkish, inflation stagnated due to tariffs, energy, and geopolitical factors, market rate cut expectations shrank, and U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly [2]. - The U.S. national debt officially exceeded $39 trillion, and the debt-to-GDP ratio approached 130%, far exceeding the international safety line of 60%. The annual debt interest expenditure exceeded $1.2 trillion for the first time, squeezing fiscal space [10]. - Since early 2026, U.S. Treasury yields have shown a sharp V-shaped trend. The market's pricing logic has shifted from recession hedging to inflation repricing. In the context of stagflation, U.S. Treasuries are characterized by high volatility and low directionality [11]. Summary by Directory Key Interpretations - The U.S. national debt exceeded $39 trillion, and the debt-to-GDP ratio was close to 130%. The annual debt interest expenditure exceeded $1.2 trillion, squeezing fiscal space [10]. - U.S. Treasury yields showed a sharp V-shaped trend, and the market's pricing logic shifted from recession hedging to inflation repricing. In the context of stagflation, U.S. Treasuries are characterized by high volatility and low directionality [11]. U.S. Treasury Interest Rates - As of March 20, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 24bp in two weeks to 4.39%. The 2-year yield rose 32bp, and the 30-year yield rose 19bp, with the yield curve steepening bearishly [3]. U.S. Treasury Market - In early March, the duration of U.S. Treasury issuance declined slightly. The issuance amounts were $57.77 billion for 3-year, $38.92 billion for 10-year, and $21.97 billion for 30-year Treasuries. The U.S. fiscal deficit in February fell to $307.501 billion, and the 12-month cumulative deficit remained at $1.63 trillion [3]. Derivatives Market - The net short position in U.S. Treasury futures declined slightly. As of March 17, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers fell to 4.77 million contracts. The federal funds rate futures market remained in a net short position, falling to 42,300 contracts [3]. Liquidity - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Powell said no rate cuts would be made until inflation improved. The TGA deposit balance increased by $28.854 billion in two weeks as of March 18, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool increased by $11.848 billion in two weeks, tightening bank system liquidity [4].