海外宏观&大类资产周度观察：全球大类资产的“滑铁卢”？-20260322

Macro Insights - U.S. inflation remains sticky, with February PPI rising 3.4% YoY, exceeding the 2.9% expectation, and 0.7% MoM, above the 0.3% forecast[4] - Major central banks, including the U.S., Eurozone, and Japan, maintained interest rates this month, reflecting a cautious stance amid rising inflation concerns[4] - The market's previous expectations for rate cuts have reversed, indicating a significant risk of returning to a tightening cycle globally[4] Asset Performance - Oil prices have surged, with Brent crude nearing $120 per barrel, while equities, precious metals, and industrial metals have declined due to rising inflation fears and discussions of interest rate hikes[4] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to significant supply concerns, marking oil as the standout asset amidst a broader market downturn[4] - Precious metals like gold and silver have faced downward pressure, with gold prices dropping below $4,500 per ounce as inflation concerns mount[4] Economic Indicators - U.S. industrial production increased by 0.2% MoM in February, slightly above the 0.1% expectation, while capacity utilization remained steady at 76.3%[4] - February's existing home sales in the U.S. rose by 1.8% MoM, surpassing the 0.6% forecast, indicating a potential recovery in the housing market[4] - The U.S. job market shows mixed signals, with initial jobless claims unexpectedly falling to 205,000, but continuing claims remain elevated, reflecting a stagnant employment situation[4] Risks and Outlook - Risks include a potential U.S. economic slowdown, unexpected oil price increases, and a slower-than-expected pace of Fed rate cuts, which could impact global liquidity and asset pricing[5]