集运指数（欧线）观点：短期地缘难降温，盘面易涨难跌-20260322

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term geopolitical situation is difficult to cool down, and the market is prone to rise and difficult to fall [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Supply Capacity: In the past week, the average weekly capacity in April was revised down from 325,000 TEU/week to 311,000 TEU/week, with the reduction mainly from the OA Alliance. April capacity decreased by 0.9% year - on - year and increased by 5.8% month - on - month. In May, the capacity was revised down from 335,000 TEU/week to 331,000 TEU/week, with 4 pending voyages. May capacity increased by 10.4% year - on - year and 7.8% month - on - month, and the static effective capacity in May is at a historical high [4][31]. - Supply Chain Trade Risks: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated, with attacks and counter - attacks between Israel and Iran. The Strait of Hormuz may adopt "selective access", and insurance conditions are still tight. Shipping companies have adjusted their operations, such as Maersk expanding land - bridge and multimodal transport solutions and CMA CGM resuming some bookings [27]. - Turnover Efficiency: The turnover efficiency is affected by factors such as ship speed, idle capacity, and port congestion. For example, the congestion situation in ports around the world is presented through data on container ships' in - port capacity [39][44]. - Static Capacity: In the past three months, 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container ships received 1 new ship in March, and there were no new 17,000 + TEU container ships delivered in March. In the next three months, 6 new 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container ships and 1 new 17,000 + TEU container ship are expected to be delivered in March [55][58]. 3.2 Demand - Asia - Europe Trade: From the perspective of Asia's exports to Europe, the container trade volume between Asia and Europe (Northwest Europe + Mediterranean) shows certain seasonal trends. In 2025, the trade volume in most months showed year - on - year growth [67][68]. - Asia - North America Trade: From the perspective of Asia's exports to North America, the container trade volume between Asia and North America also has seasonal characteristics. In 2025, the trade volume in some months showed year - on - year growth, while in others it declined [71][72]. 3.3 Price - Spot Freight and Index Tracking: Maersk raised the price by $400 to $2,700/FEU in the first week of April, and the booking progress was average as of Thursday. In a neutral scenario, the market freight rate center in early April is expected to increase to the range of $2,700 - $2,800/FEU, equivalent to an SCFIS index of about 1,950 - 2,050 points; in a pessimistic scenario, the price increase fails, and the freight rate center returns to the range of $2,500 - $2,600/FEU in the second half of March [9]. - Seasonal Trends of Freight Rates on Major Global Routes: The document presents the seasonal trends of freight rates on major global routes through SCFI and NCFI data, including routes such as Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - Mediterranean, etc. [13][19] 3.4 Strategy - Short - term low - buying of the 2604 contract around 1,800 points [4]