近期长期限品种的机构行为特征

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intensity of selling long - term and ultra - long - term bonds by trading desks did not increase this week, which limited the rapid rise of ultra - long - term bond yields to some extent. The willingness of allocation desks to buy long - term and ultra - long - term bonds is still relatively limited, and the 10Y Treasury bond yield may remain volatile at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to moderately participate in long - term bonds during adjustments, and pay attention to the opportunities of spread compression [1][2][10][16]. - This week, affected by the economic start - up, inflation recovery expectations, and external market fluctuations, the bond market was in a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, with intensified fluctuations. The yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds both rose by 2bp [9]. - The economic data from January to February generally improved, with obvious upward industrial growth and moderate consumption recovery. Since March, automobile consumption has been sluggish, while port throughput has been strong [62][63]. - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate range of 3.5% to 3.75%, and the dot - plot implied a hawkish tendency. Overseas bond markets, including US and European bonds, declined, and most emerging market bond markets also fell [71][72]. - The prices of live pigs and Shanghai gold fell this week. The performance of major asset classes was: crude oil > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Chinese bonds > rebar > US dollar > CSI 300 > convertible bonds > Shanghai copper > CSI 1000 > Shanghai gold > live pigs [77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - This week, the bond market fluctuated sharply due to the economic start - up, inflation recovery expectations, and external market fluctuations. The yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds rose by 2bp. The market showed different trends on different days, affected by various factors such as economic data, oil prices, and equity market performance [9]. - From the perspective of trading desks, the selling intensity of long - term and ultra - long - term bonds did not increase. From the perspective of allocation desks, large - scale banks increased their allocation of short - term bonds, and insurance institutions began to increase their allocation of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds in the past two weeks. The 10Y Treasury bond yield may remain volatile at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to moderately participate in long - term bonds during adjustments and pay attention to spread compression opportunities [1][10][14][16]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank made a net injection of funds this week, and the funding sentiment was balanced. From March 16th to March 20th, the central bank's open - market net injection was 2458 billion yuan. The R001 and DR001 rates changed by +0.4bp and - 0.09bp respectively compared with March 13th, reaching 1.40% and 1.32%. The 3M certificate of deposit issuance rate first decreased, then increased, and then decreased again. The FR007 - 1Y swap rate first increased, then decreased, and then rebounded. As of March 20th, the 3M national - share bank acceptance bill transfer discount price was 1.43%, down 5bp from March 13th [20][23]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - This week, bond yields fluctuated sharply, and short - term bonds performed better. The yields of 3m, 1y, 3y, and 20y Treasury bonds declined, while those of 5y, 10y, and 30y Treasury bonds rose. Except for the 7Y - 5Y and 3Y - 1Y, the term spreads of other key - term Treasury bonds widened. As of March 20th, the yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds rose by 2bp compared with March 13th, reaching 1.83% and 2.39% respectively, and the term spread between them rose by 1bp to 56bp [25]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - As of March 20th, the weekly turnover rate of 30Y Treasury bonds fell to 31%. The spread between 50Y - 30Y Treasury bonds widened by 2bp compared with March 13th, and the spread between 30Y - 10Y Treasury bonds widened significantly by 0.6bp to 56bp. The inter - bank leverage ratio dropped to 107.4%, and the exchange leverage ratio dropped to 121.7%. The median duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds increased by 0.02 years to 2.57 years compared with March 13th, while the median duration of interest - rate bond funds decreased by 0.03 years this week. The implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds narrowed [38]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased significantly. From March 16th to March 20th, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was 818 billion yuan, a significant increase of 562.8 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing of Treasury bonds and local government bonds increased, while that of policy - financial bonds decreased. The net financing of Treasury bonds was 525 billion yuan, an increase of 521.9 billion yuan; the net financing of local government bonds was 255.4 billion yuan, an increase of 147.3 billion yuan; the net financing of policy - financial bonds was 3.77 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.63 billion yuan. The net repayment of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, and the average issuance rate continued to decline, dropping 1.7bp to 1.53%. Next week, a 7Y coupon - bearing Treasury bond 260007.IB will be newly issued [52][55][59]. 3.3 Economic Data - The economic data from January to February generally improved, with the year - on - year increase of industrial added value of above - scale industries at +6.3%, the year - on - year increase of social consumer goods retail at +2.8% (forecast +2.6%), and the year - on - year increase of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) at +1.8% (expected - 5.0%). The LPR quotation has remained unchanged for 10 consecutive months. Since March, automobile consumption has been relatively sluggish, while port throughput has been stronger than the Spring Festival seasonality. Industrial production has continued to improve marginally [62][63]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. The dot - plot implied a hawkish tendency. Overseas bond markets, including US and European bonds, declined, and most emerging market bond markets also fell. The 2Y US Treasury bond rate rose 15bp to 3.88%, the 10Y US Treasury bond rate rose 11bp to 4.39%, and the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury bond spread narrowed 4bp to 51bp [71][72]. 3.5 Major Asset Classes - The CSI 300 index adjusted this week, closing at 4567.0 points as of March 20, 2026, a decrease of 2.19% compared with March 13th. This week, the Nanhua Crude Oil Index continued to rise, while the Nanhua Live Pig Index, Shanghai Gold, and Shanghai Copper all declined. The performance of major asset classes was: crude oil > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Chinese bonds > rebar > US dollar > CSI 300 > convertible bonds > Shanghai copper > CSI 1000 > Shanghai gold > live pigs [77]. 3.6 Bond Market Calendar - From March 23rd to March 27th, there will be liquidity injections and expirations, government bond supplies, and the release of fundamental data. There are also important domestic and international events, such as the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026 and the 14th WTO Ministerial Conference [82].