维持防御，关注风格收敛：股指期货数据观察

Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a defensive stance and focus on style convergence [1] Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions in the market are formed by the continuous fermentation of overseas geopolitical risks, the expectation of tightened global liquidity environment, and the complex situation of "shrinking volume and rising prices" in the domestic economic fundamentals [4] - External macro - environmental uncertainties suppress market risk appetite, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushing up oil prices, strengthening inflation expectations, and keeping US bond yields high. The RBA's interest - rate hike reflects the tightening external environment [4] - Domestically, there is a game between policy support and the need to repair economic endogenous power. Policy signals are stable, and exports are a short - term bright spot, but the economic repair process faces challenges, showing "shrinking volume and rising prices", and the conversion efficiency of macro - liquidity to market incremental funds is limited [4] - The style selection is tilting towards large - cap value. External risk - appetite decline restricts small - cap growth, and the valuation ratio of CSI 300 to CSI 1000 is at a historical low. With the earnings report disclosure, the relative advantages of large - cap value will be more prominent [4] - The market is at a multi - intersection period of increasing external risks, bumpy internal recovery, and the return of the performance main line. It is advisable to maintain a defensive mindset, control overall positions, and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities of going long on CSI 300 and shorting on CSI 1000 [4] Summary by Directory 01 Macro Data Tracking - The report will track data in aspects such as economic momentum, financing demand, the M2 - M1 scissors - difference, liquidity observation, industrial production, investment and consumption, and interest - rate spreads, with data sources from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [7][8] 02 Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - The report will track data including stock market sentiment, stock market fund flow, futures market fund flow, basis, cross - variety spreads, and cross - period spreads, with data sources from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [40]