碳酸锂周报：平衡表定性存疑，须看三四月需求成色-20260322

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The qualitative assessment of the balance sheet is questionable, and the demand in March and April needs to be observed. The supply and demand are both increasing, and there may be an excess of 0.5 tons in March. It is necessary to observe whether there will be more unexpected positive news in subsequent demand [7][8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Core Points and Strategies - Supply: - Domestic supply: The weekly start - up rate has continued to increase in all process segments. In March, the lithium carbonate production increased by 28% month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the hedging supply of recycled materials. The exchange has stricter requirements for the moisture and impurities of the benchmark delivery products. Guocheng Mining's subsidiary Jinxin Mining is expected to reach full production in March [9] - Foreign supply (import): Focus on the import of spodumene and lithium carbonate, especially the impact of the US's procurement of strategic materials such as lithium carbonate, the joint statement on critical minerals between Chile and the US, the export ban in Zimbabwe, and the production increase in Australia. Australia plans to increase tariffs on spodumene, and the final implementation needs to be observed. From January to February, the import of lithium concentrate increased by 26% year - on - year, and the import of lithium carbonate increased by 64% year - on - year, with imports from Chile and Argentina increasing by 56% and 72% respectively [9] - Demand: In March, the production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase by 19.3% and 23.6% respectively month - on - month. Solid - state batteries are a direction worthy of continuous attention, and there is still strong policy support. Currently, more attention should be paid to the increasing demand for lithium iron phosphate. From April 1, 2026, the export tax rebate for battery products will be gradually reduced and cancelled [9] - Inventory: The weekly inventory has continued to decline, with 98,900 tons this week (- 86 tons), and the de - stocking has slowed down. The warehouse receipts decreased during the week, reaching 34,318 tons as of this Friday, a decrease of 2,085 tons during the week (including a decrease of 1,506 tons in factory warehouse receipts). The weekly available inventory of lithium ore is 105,000 tons (about 14,000 tons of LCE), a decrease of 15,000 tons of ore compared to the previous week [9] - Valuation: As of this Friday, based on the main contract, the net cash inflows from purchasing spodumene and lepidolite externally are approximately - 0.02 million yuan/ton and 0.13 million yuan/ton respectively; calculated according to the SMM spot valuation, they are approximately 0.48 million yuan/ton and 0.64 million yuan/ton respectively [9] - Balance Sheet: Considering factors such as the seasonal increase in the start - up rate at the salt lake end, a significant increase in imports in March, and March being the last time node for battery export rush, there may be an excess of 0.5 tons in March [9] 3.2 Data Chart Tracking - Price Changes: As of this Friday, the SMM valuation of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 149,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10,000 yuan/ton (- 6.3%) during the week; lepidolite is 4,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton (- 11.9%) during the week, with a cost reduction of 14,100 yuan/ton; spodumene (6%) is 2,057 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 153 US dollars/ton (- 6.9%) during the week, with a cost reduction of 9,305 yuan/ton [20] - Start - up and Production: The weekly start - up rate and production of lithium salt plants have increased. The weekly start - up rate of lithium carbonate smelting is 59.05% (+ 1.93%), among which the start - up rate of spodumene is 70.29% (+ 1.79%), mica is 33.61% (+ 2.73%), and salt lake is 59.64% (+ 1.18%). The start - up rate of recycling is 35.08% (+ 0.7%). The weekly production of lithium carbonate is 24,186 tons (+ 760 tons), among which the production at the spodumene end is 14,914 tons (+ 380 tons), the production at the lepidolite end is 3,197 tons (+ 260 tons), the production at the salt lake end is 3,565 tons (+ 70 tons), and the production at the recycling end is 2,510 tons (+ 50 tons) [34][38] - Import Situation: From January to February, the import volume of lithium concentrate is 1.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 170,000 tons (+ 19%). Among them, the imports from Australia and Zimbabwe increased by 70,000 tons (+ 12%) and 3,500 tons (+ 3%) respectively. From January to February, 100,000 tons and 0 tons were imported from Mali respectively, and 13,000 tons and 3,000 tons were imported from Mongolia respectively. From January to February, the import of lithium carbonate is 53,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21,000 tons (+ 64%). Among them, 31,400 tons were imported from Chile, a year - on - year increase of 11,000 tons (+ 56%), and 19,000 tons were imported from Argentina, a year - on - year increase of 8,000 tons (+ 72%) [50][56] - Positive Material Production: SMM estimates that in March, the production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate will increase by 19.3% and 23.6% respectively month - on - month. From the perspective of weekly production, the month - on - month increase of ternary may not reach 19%, and it lags behind year - on - year. The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary increased by 0.2% and 3.1% respectively [57][59][61] - Terminal Situation: According to the Passenger Car Association, in January, the national new energy vehicle sales were 945,000, a year - on - year increase of 0.11%. The total scale of energy storage winning bids is still at a seasonal high. In February, the winning bid capacity was 26.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.3 GWh (+ 14%), and the cumulative capacity was 49.5 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 26.72 GWh (+ 117%) [69] - Balance Sheet Recalculation: According to SMM's estimated production schedule and a significant increase in imports, the balance sheet for March may have an excess of 0.5 tons. The subsequent import of foreign ore and lithium salt still needs to be tracked [95]