高油价尾部风险短期仍存调整压力：贵金属周度观察：-20260322

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, precious metals are under adjustment pressure due to the high - oil - price tail risk, and the core pricing logic revolves around the evolution of the US - Iran conflict, the release of economic recession panic, and the rhythm of liquidity repair. It is recommended to wait and not blindly bottom - fish before the US stock market stabilizes [3]. - The global economic outlook uncertainty intensifies, and industrial demand expectations decline. Silver, platinum, and palladium are affected by macro - level industrial demand suppression in the short term, with silver having greater retracement pressure due to more concentrated leveraged funds [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Influencing Factors - Geopolitical conflicts: The ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has increased the security pressure in the Gulf region, threatening the shipping safety of the Strait of Hormuz. It has pushed up international oil price fluctuations, increased the risk of global inflation rebound, and led to a typical cost - push inflation. This has forced central banks to maintain high interest rates, delaying interest rate cuts, weakening economic growth momentum, and increasing recession concerns. Precious metals have short - term support due to hedging demand, but risk assets are under pressure [4]. - Monetary policy environment: During the "Super Central Bank Week", most central banks, except the Reserve Bank of Australia, maintained interest rates unchanged, sending a hawkish signal. The Middle East conflict has pushed up energy prices and inflation risks. Central banks have listed energy supply disruptions as a key risk, raising inflation expectations. The Fed's interest rate cut times have been reduced to 1 this year, and the timing has been postponed to the second half of the year. The European and British central banks are not considering easing for now, and the Bank of Japan maintains a gradual tightening path. Precious metals and risk assets are under pressure [4]. 3.2 ETF Position Tracking - Gold ETF: The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased to 1056.99 tons, with a reduction of 14.57 tons during the week, indicating a decline in investors' physical allocation demand for gold [8]. - Silver ETF: The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased to 15248.9 tons, with a reduction of 211.28 tons during the week, showing a decline in investors' physical allocation demand for silver [9]. 3.3 Exchange Inventory - Gold exchange inventory: The report mentions the gold exchange inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided [38]. - Silver exchange inventory: The report mentions the silver exchange inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided [43]. 3.4 Domestic and International Futures - Spot Price Differences The report mentions the domestic and international futures - spot price differences, but no specific data analysis is provided [52]. 3.5 Precious Metal Ratios The report mentions precious metal ratios, but no specific data analysis is provided [60]. 3.6 Gold ETF Volatility Index - The gold ETF volatility index (GVZ) is 35.25, at the 94.8% level of the past - year historical percentile, up from 32.31 last Friday. The Shanghai Gold main - contract at - the - money implied volatility is 37.05%, at the 96.81% level of the past - year historical percentile, up from 25.56 last Friday. The Shanghai Silver main - contract at - the - money implied volatility is 72.12%, at the 84.86% level of the past - year historical percentile, down from 77.56% last Friday [7][65][69][72].