债市微观结构跟踪：商品比价”明显回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The micro - trading thermometer reading for this period increased by 1 percentage point to 59%. A few indicator percentile values declined, while the percentile values of institutional leverage, fund - small and medium - sized bank buying volume, and fund divergence increased significantly. The indicators with high congestion currently include the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, allocation disk strength, and policy spread [3][15]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 45%. Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 9 (45%), the number in the neutral range decreased to 6 (30%), and the number in the cold range remained at 5 (25%) [4][23]. - The trading heat continued to rise. The trading heat percentile average increased by 5 percentage points, the institutional behavior percentile average increased by 6 percentage points, the spread percentile average decreased by 3 percentage points, and the price - ratio percentile average remained unchanged [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. This period's micro - trading thermometer reading increased by 1 percentage point to 59% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - Income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" rose slightly by 1 percentage point to 59%. A few indicator percentile values declined, including the commodity price - ratio, 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, stock - bond price - ratio, and market spread, which decreased by 28, 22, 12, and 10 percentage points respectively. The percentile values of institutional leverage, fund - small and medium - sized bank buying volume, and fund divergence increased significantly, by 47, 20, and 14 percentage points respectively [3][15]. 3.2. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 45% 3.2.1. Institutional leverage continued to rise - In the trading heat - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 67%, the proportion in the neutral range remained at 33%, and the proportion in the cold range decreased to 0%. The institutional leverage percentile value increased by 47 percentage points to 73%, rising from the cold range to the over - heated range [6][25]. 3.2.2. The buying scale of small and medium - sized banks declined - In the institutional behavior - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 38%, the proportion in the neutral range decreased to 25%, and the proportion in the cold range remained at 38%. The fund divergence and listed company wealth - management buying volume increased by 14 and 12 percentage points to 76% and 76% respectively, rising from the neutral range to the over - heated range. Due to the decline in the buying scale of small and medium - sized banks, the fund - small and medium - sized bank scale increased, and the percentile value also increased by 20 percentage points [7][28]. 3.2.3. Policy spread compressed - The policy spread decreased by 3bp to - 5bp, and the corresponding percentile value increased by 4 percentage points to 99%, still in the over - heated range. The credit spread increased by 1bp to 50bp, the Agricultural Development - State Development spread remained basically the same as the previous period, and the IRS - 3M Shibor spread increased by 3bp to 4bp. The average spread of the three was 18bp, and its percentile value decreased by 3 percentage points to 63%, still in the neutral range [8][33]. 3.2.4. The commodity price - ratio percentile value dropped significantly - Among the price - ratio - related indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 25%, the proportion in the neutral range remained at 25%, and the proportion in the cold range increased to 50%. The stock - bond and commodity price - ratio percentile values decreased by 12 percentage points to 0%, remaining in the cold range; the commodity price - ratio percentile value decreased by 28 percentage points to 52%, dropping from the over - heated range to the neutral range; the real - estate price - ratio percentile value decreased by 6 percentage points to 39%, dropping from the neutral range to the cold range [9][33].