中东局势升级，滞涨隐忧压制股市

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the stock index is "Oscillating" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The escalation of the Middle - East situation and concerns about stagflation are suppressing the stock market. The global stock market continues to be under pressure due to geopolitical factors such as the continuous escalation of the US - Iran situation and the substantial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The expectation of stagflation has escalated again. In the stagflation trading, "inflation" has been initially priced, while "stagnation" has not been fully traded. For the A - share market, there have been significant recent declines, and risk - aversion trading is dominant. In the short term, as the war situation expands, there are few opportunities for the stock index. It is recommended to take a risk - averse strategy and wait in a low - position until the situation becomes clear [2][10] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week View and Overview of Macro Key Events - Next week's view: The escalation of the Middle - East situation and concerns about stagflation are suppressing the stock market. The global stock market continues to be under pressure, and the expectation of stagflation has escalated again. For the A - share market, there have been significant declines, and risk - aversion trading is dominant. In the short term, there are few opportunities for the stock index, and a risk - averse strategy is recommended [10] 3.2 One - Week Market Quotes Overview 3.2.1 Global Stock Market Weekly Overview - From March 16th to March 20th, the global stock market denominated in US dollars declined. The MSCI Global Index fell 1.79%. Among them, emerging markets (- 0.42%) > frontier markets (- 1.08%) > developed markets (- 1.97%). The South Korean stock market rose 5.39%, leading the global stock market, while the South African stock market fell 5.62%, performing the worst globally [11] 3.2.2 Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview - From March 16th to March 20th, Chinese equities declined significantly, with Hong Kong stocks > A - shares > Chinese concept stocks. Among A - share indices, the ChiNext Index rose 1.26% weekly, the only rising index, while the micro - cap stock index performed the worst, with a decline of 6.91%. The average daily trading volume of A - shares this week was 22,113 billion yuan, a decrease of 287.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week [14] 3.2.3 Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets - Most of the global GICS primary industries declined this week. The leading industry was energy (+ 3.05%), and the lagging industry was materials (- 5.81%). In the Chinese market, the financial sector had the smallest decline (- 1.05%), and the materials sector was the worst (- 10.44%) [18] 3.2.4 Weekly Overview of China A - share CITIC Primary Industries - Among China A - share CITIC primary industries this week, 2 industries rose (12 last week), and 28 industries fell (18 last week). The industry with the largest increase was communications (+ 1.71%), and the industry with the largest decline was non - ferrous metals (- 11.91%) [21] 3.2.5 Weekly Overview of China A - share Styles: Large - cap Growth Dominates - This week, growth outperformed value, and the market - capitalization style favored large - cap stocks [25] 3.2.6 Overview of Futures Index Basis - There are relevant data on the annualized basis rate of the current - quarter contracts of IH, IF, IC, and IM (excluding dividends), but specific data is not presented in the summary text [29][31] 3.3 Overview of Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast 3.3.1 Broad - based Index Valuation - Presented the PE and PB data of various broad - based indices such as the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 100, etc. this week, their eight - year percentile, the values at the beginning of the year, and the changes during the year [33] 3.3.2 Primary Industry Valuation - Presented the PE and PB data of various primary industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, etc. this week, their eight - year percentile, the values at the beginning of the year, and the changes during the year [34] 3.3.3 Equity Risk Premium of Broad - based Indices - The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 increased slightly this week [35][40] 3.3.4 Consensus Earnings Growth Rate of Broad - based Indices - The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was adjusted down to 7.45%, and in 2026 it was adjusted up to 10.46%; the expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 500 in 2025 was adjusted down to 18.57%, and in 2026 it was adjusted up to 24.33%; the expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 1000 in 2025 was adjusted down to 16.60%, and in 2026 it was adjusted up to 25.23% [41] 3.4 Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking 3.4.1 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - This week, the 10 - year bond yield decreased, the 1 - year bond yield decreased, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 99.5, and the offshore RMB was 6.9062 [51] 3.4.2 Tracking of Trading - type Funds - This week, the average daily trading volume of north - bound funds decreased by 17.6 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance decreased by 1 billion yuan compared to last week [50] 3.4.3 Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs - There are 30 on - market ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 29 on - market ETFs tracking the CSI 500, 15 on - market ETFs tracking the CSI 1000, and 40 on - market ETFs tracking the CSI A500. This week, the shares of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 increased by 1.4 billion, the shares of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 increased by 0.6 billion, the shares of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 increased by 0.76 billion, and the shares of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 5 billion [54][60] 3.5 Tracking of Domestic Macro High - frequency Data 3.5.1 Supply Side: Tire Operating Rate Recovered after the Spring Festival - There are data on the national blast furnace operating rate, coking enterprise operating rate, domestic crude steel daily output, and tire operating rate, but specific data is not presented in the summary text [63][66] 3.5.2 Consumption Side: Crude Oil Prices Soared - The crude oil price soared to around $103.68 per barrel. The year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales rebounded. There are also data on the transaction area of first - hand housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 16 key cities, the land transaction area of 100 large and medium - sized cities, and the listing volume and listing price of second - hand housing nationwide, but specific data is not presented in the summary text [77] 3.5.3 Inflation Observation: Agricultural Product Prices Declined - The prices of agricultural products dropped sharply from a high level. The production material prices have not fully reflected the impact of oil prices [80]