沪铝周报：宏观偏空，沪铝偏弱；铝土矿存缩减预期-20260322

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro environment is bearish, and Shanghai Aluminum is weak; there is an expectation of a reduction in bauxite supply [1] - Shanghai Aluminum is weak, but downstream purchasing sentiment is good. However, social inventories are high, and discounts are under pressure [15] 3. Summary by Directory 01 Price Data - This week, the center of the Shanghai Aluminum futures price has significantly declined [8] - The spread between the April and May contracts of Shanghai Aluminum has slightly increased week-on-week; the LME Aluminum 0 - 3M premium has strengthened this week [11] 02 Fundamental Data - Cost factors are driving up the price of imported ores [18] - Guinea is discussing with mining companies to control the supply of ores [23] - The monthly spread of alumina is under pressure [24] - Domestic alumina inventories are still increasing [27] - According to Steel Union, the weekly output of domestic alumina has decreased by 0.5 tons to 1.78 million tons [29] - The import window for alumina has opened [30] - Domestic alumina inventories have increased by 64,000 tons to 5.834 million tons [34] - The room for improvement in the utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is limited [38] - According to Steel Union, the weekly output of domestic electrolytic aluminum has remained flat at 859,700 tons [39] - Aluminum imports are at a premium [41] - This week, electrolytic aluminum spot inventories are still increasing and are at a high level year-on-year, while aluminum rod spot inventories are decreasing [44] - LME aluminum inventories have decreased week-on-week [47] - This week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum products has increased week-on-week [51] - During the traditional consumption peak season in March, downstream demand has been released [56] - From January to February in China, the national real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year-on-year [57] - Last week, the transaction areas of new and second-hand houses in 10 key cities increased week-on-week but decreased year-on-year [61] - The production plan for household air conditioners in March is 23.34 million units, a decrease of 6.1% compared to the actual performance of the same period last year [62] - The production plan for refrigerators in March is 8.43 million units, an increase of 1.6% compared to the actual performance of the same period last year [65] - The production plan for washing machines in March is 7.34 million units, a decrease of 3.4% compared to the actual performance of the same period last year [66] - From March 1st to 15th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 28% year-on-year [69] - This week, the domestic component inventory has slightly increased. The conflict in the Middle East has affected transportation and demand [71]