境外权益（港美股）周度策略报告-20260322

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, maintain a defensive stance in the US stock and Chinese - funded stock markets due to geopolitical uncertainties, and wait for the situation to clear up before buying at low prices. In the long - term, US stock investment returns to fundamental factors, and HALO assets are favored. For Chinese - funded stocks, A - shares are better than Hong Kong stocks in the medium - term [6][19][21][26] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs US Stocks - Market Performance: This week, the three major US stock indexes continued to decline. The geopolitical situation, rising oil prices, and climbing US Treasury yields suppressed market sentiment. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes hit their lowest closing points in six months. The energy sector led the rise, and the market paid a premium for potential "tail risks" [3][6] - Response to Oil Price Shock: Under the TACO thinking, the overall reaction of US stocks to the oil price shock was relatively mild. However, the market's pricing of tail risks such as continuous geopolitical conflicts, high oil prices, and stagflation was insufficient [7][9] - Private Credit Market Risk: In the short - term, the risk of the US private credit market triggering a systemic liquidity crisis alone is controllable. In the medium - term, potential tail risks are mainly reflected in resonance with other risk points [10][13] - Scenario Assumptions of "US - Iran Conflict": Three scenarios are assumed. In the "quick victory" scenario, the growth style will have stronger elasticity in the short - term; in the "protracted consumption" scenario, maintain a hedging stance in the short - term and focus on medium - term clues in the medium - term; in the "comprehensive regional war" scenario, the traditional energy sector may benefit, but the equity market will face systemic downward risks [14][16] - Investment Strategy: In the short - term, maintain a defensive stance (military and energy) and reduce the overall risk preference of the portfolio. In the long - term, be optimistic about hardware + HALO assets, including offensive HALO assets (AI - related physical assets) and defensive HALO assets (traditional physical assets) [17][19] Chinese - Funded Stocks - Market Performance: This week, the A - share and Hong Kong stock markets oscillated and closed down. Defensive sectors led the rise. Shipping, some defensive sectors, CPO, and photovoltaic equipment performed well, while other sectors were weak due to geopolitical disturbances [20] - HALO Assets in A - shares: Since the beginning of the year, A - share HALO assets have outperformed the broader market. The top 50 stocks in the A - share HALO index are mainly concentrated in technology hardware and the North American power shortage chain [23][25] - Investment Strategy: In the short - term, maintain a defensive stance (energy, coal chemical industry, and shipping) and wait for the situation to clear up before buying at low prices. In the medium - term, A - shares are better than Hong Kong stocks. Although Hong Kong stocks have valuation advantages, their fundamental reversal requires the improvement of factors such as the software ecosystem and cash - flow problems [26] Other Analyses - Analysis of Odds in Hong Kong and US Stocks: Analyzed the odds of Hong Kong stocks from the perspectives of index ERP and forward PE, and the odds of US stocks from the forward PE perspective [28][31] - Analysis of US Credit Market Risk: Analyzed the credit spreads of US stocks/US technology stocks and the 5Y CDS spreads of key US technology companies [37][40]