一周全球宏观与资产复盘：周览全球：周览全球滞胀交易会如何继续演绎

Macro Economic Overview - Global financial markets are dominated by the Iran situation, with the Federal Reserve's March meeting signaling inflation concerns and narrowing rate cut expectations, leading to a "stagflation" trading environment[9] - The transmission chain of geopolitical conflict to asset revaluation is evident: "geopolitical conflict → oil price surge → inflation expectations rise → rate cut expectations narrow → asset revaluation"[9] Commodity Market Performance - Oil prices are fluctuating at high levels, with upward momentum decreasing compared to last week; natural gas shows strong upward momentum due to attacks on Qatar's LNG facilities[10] - Gold prices have significantly dropped, with a decline of 9.62% in COMEX gold, driven by reduced rate cut expectations and liquidity concerns[24] Equity Market Trends - A-share market shows resilience amidst external volatility, but main funds have net outflows exceeding 260 billion CNY, indicating strong risk aversion[11] - The S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices fell by 1.9% and 2.1% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 2.1%[23] Bond Market Dynamics - U.S. Treasury yields are generally rising, with short-term yields increasing more significantly, reflecting narrowed rate cut expectations post-Fed meeting[10] - The yield curve is steepening, with 1Y and 2Y Treasury yields down by 2.0bp and 4.5bp respectively, while 10Y and 30Y yields increased by 1.6bp and 2.2bp[23] Future Outlook - Short-term equity structure is expected to remain differentiated, with ongoing "stagflation" risks; energy-related sectors may perform independently[12] - The overall yield curve for U.S. Treasuries has potential for upward movement as the market begins to price in the end of the current rate cut cycle[12]