外汇期货周度报告：战争局势继续升温，全球市场风险偏好走弱-20260322

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [7] Core Viewpoints - The war situation continues to heat up, causing a decline in global market risk appetite. Stocks mostly fall, bond yields mostly rise, and the global economy faces increasing stagflation risks [3][10] - The expansion of the Middle - East war to energy facilities drives up oil prices, leading to soaring inflation pressure, increased market expectations of interest rate hikes, and joint pressure from high inflation and high - interest rates on the stock market [4][12] - Central banks in the US, UK, and Europe are cautious about interest rate policies. The Fed is more concerned about inflation than employment in the short term, with a low willingness to cut interest rates. The market's expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of England and the ECB have increased [4][12] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite declines. Stocks mostly fall, bond yields mostly rise, with the US Treasury yield reaching 4.38%. The US dollar index drops 0.71% to 99.6, non - US currencies show mixed performance, gold prices plunge 10.5% to $4492 per ounce, the VIX index slightly declines to 26.8, the spot commodity index closes down, and Brent crude oil rises 12.2% to $116.2 per barrel [3][10] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stocks mostly fall. The S&P 500 drops 1.9%, the Shanghai Composite Index drops 3.38%, the euro - zone stocks decline, and emerging - market stocks also fall. High inflation and high - interest rates jointly pressure the stock market. Central bank policies and the war situation continue to impact the stock market [11][12] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly rise, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield reaching 4.38%. Rising oil prices, hawkish central bank stances, and increased interest - rate hike expectations put pressure on the bond market. The bond yield curve shows a bearish flattening trend. The Chinese 10 - year Treasury yield rises to 1.84%, and the bond market continues to fluctuate in the short term [15][19][22] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index drops 0.71% to 99.6, and non - US currencies show mixed performance. The offshore RMB fluctuates and closes flat, while the euro, pound, yen, and Swiss franc appreciate. The New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar, peso, and real also appreciate, while the Thai baht, rupee, rand, and won depreciate [25][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold drops 10.5% to $4492 per ounce, and it is expected to remain weak until volatility decreases. Brent crude oil rises 12.2% to $116 per barrel. The spot commodity index closes down as other commodities are pressured by interest - rate hike expectations [29][30] 3. Hot - spot Tracking - The war situation heats up, and market risk appetite weakens. The conflict between the US and Iran affects energy supply and inflation, leading to increased central - bank interest - rate hike expectations and market panic [31][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: Trump threatens to limit Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours - Tuesday: Denmark holds early elections; Eurozone and US March manufacturing PMI are released - Wednesday: The minutes of the Bank of Japan's January interest - rate meeting are released - Thursday: The Norwegian central bank holds an interest - rate meeting; US initial jobless claims are announced - Friday: China's January - February industrial enterprise profits are released [36]