玻璃纯碱周度报告-20260322

1. Report Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views Glass - Short - term: Rebound; Medium - term: Sideways market. Short - term pressure factors are forward premium, inventory pressure, and poor demand. Mid - term bullish drivers include anti - deflation, anti - involution, and potential production cuts. The market is expected to fluctuate between rising driven by production cut expectations and falling due to weak demand and weak basis. In the first half of 2026, the market may be weak, and it may turn strong in the second half [2]. 纯碱 - Short - term: Rebound; Medium - term: Sideways market. The core pressures are oversupply, forward premium, and future demand pressure from downstream production cuts. Supply may decline during the April - May maintenance period, and light soda demand is relatively good. Exports may slightly ease the oversupply, but it's not enough to reverse the situation. The price is supported by cost on the downside and restricted by oversupply and glass industry production cuts on the upside [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Supply - As of March 19, 2026, there are 294 glass production lines (199,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 207 in production and 87 cold - repaired or shut down. The daily output of float glass is 145,800 tons, a 0.75% decrease from March 12. The average开工率 in the float glass industry this week is 70.55%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease, and the average capacity utilization rate is 73.36%, a 0.72 - percentage - point decrease [2]. - Potential new ignition lines have a total daily melting volume of 16,650 tons/day, potential old - line复产 has a total of 10,340 tons/day, and potential cold - repair lines have a total of 13,720 tons/day [6][7][8]. - Usually, the supply side tends to复产 from the second to the third quarter, but low prices limit the space for复产. From January to March, the market mainly focused on production cuts, and the current production capacity in operation is about 145,000 tons/day. The peak production capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day. The expected variables for supply - side contraction are mainly environmental factors (switching from petroleum coke to natural gas), and the supply expansion from复产 is mainly due to capacity replacement [9][10]. Glass Price and Profit - The prices in most areas are stable. The price in Shahe is around 1,060 - 1,090 yuan/ton, in central China's Hubei region it's around 1,080 - 1,140 yuan/ton, and in eastern China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions it's around 1,260 - 1,346 yuan/ton. The basis has weakened due to the rising futures price [16][17]. - The profit of petroleum - coke - fueled production is about - 22 yuan/ton, and the profits of natural - gas - and coal - fueled production are about - 87 and - 22 yuan/ton respectively [21][25]. Glass Inventory and Downstream开工率 - Recently, market transactions have improved, and inventory has decreased. Currently, the inventory is relatively high in most regions, but with the improvement in transactions, the inventory is expected to continue to decline. The key for the later market is whether the market can significantly improve from March to April to boost sales [29][31]. - Regional arbitrage shows that prices in different regions are basically synchronous, and the price difference has changed little [33]. Photovoltaic Glass - Price and profit: Attention should be paid to whether there will be an improvement at the end of March or in April. As of this Thursday, the mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.0 - 10.5 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels is 17.0 - 17.5 yuan/square meter, both remaining flat compared to last week [37][39]. - Capacity and inventory: The capacity has slightly shrunk. There are 405 photovoltaic glass production lines in operation, with a total daily melting volume of 89,700 tons/day, a 1.82% month - on - month increase and a 2.22% year - on - year decrease. The sample inventory days are about 42.87 days, a 1.66% increase month - on - month. Historically, the photovoltaic market may improve slightly after the second quarter, and inventory may start to decline [41][42][47]. 纯碱 Supply and Maintenance - In the second half of March to April, the soda ash market supply may enter a peak maintenance period. Many manufacturers have maintenance plans, such as Zhongyan Kunshan planning to conduct maintenance for about 20 days starting from March 22, and Hubei Shuanghuan planning to conduct maintenance for about 15 days in mid - to early April [50]. - The capacity utilization rate of soda ash is 86.3%, down from 87% last week. The current weekly production of heavy soda ash is about 434,000 tons. Under the background of high production and high inventory, either manufacturers need to increase production cuts, or the real - estate industry chain needs to continue to recover to drive up the rigid demand and inventory replenishment of glass. Currently, the glass production capacity remains stable, but the oversupply pressure of soda ash still exists [52][53]. 纯碱 Inventory - As of March 19, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.8538 million tons, a decrease of 77,900 tons (4.03%) from last Thursday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash is 963,100 tons, a decrease of 50,500 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash is 890,700 tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory has increased by 166,000 tons (9.84%) [56][57]. 纯碱 Price and Profit - In the Shahe area, the low - end price is 1,180 - 1,200 yuan/ton. The quotes of futures - cash merchants have slightly decreased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of manufacturers are concentrated around 1,300 yuan/ton in North China and 1,120 - 1,200 yuan/ton in Central China [64]. - The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is 227 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 25 yuan/ton [69].