全球资产配置每周聚焦（20260313-20260320）：黄金急跌：流动性下杀≠趋势反转-20260322

Market Overview - During the week of March 13-20, 2026, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to a rise in oil prices by 8.77%, while gold prices fell by 9.54%[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 11 basis points to 4.39% due to hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, which significantly reduced expectations for interest rate cuts[3] Gold Price Dynamics - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to liquidity shocks rather than a trend reversal, as gold prices initially rose with geopolitical tensions but then fell in sync with equity markets[10] - If oil prices rise above $90 per barrel in the next two quarters, the U.S. may face significant inflation risks, constraining monetary easing[11] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve raised its inflation growth forecast for 2026 during the March 18 meeting, indicating a likelihood of only one rate cut this year, with no cuts expected in the first half of 2027[14] - Market expectations as of March 21, 2026, suggest that the Fed will not cut rates in 2026 or the first half of 2027[14] Investment Sentiment - Speculative long positions in gold have been liquidated, while allocation funds have just begun to reduce their positions, indicating a cautious market sentiment[31] - Historical analysis shows that after significant declines in gold prices (greater than 10%), there is no clear trend in subsequent price movements over the following weeks or months[34] Risk Factors - Short-term asset price volatility may not reflect long-term trends, and there are risks of deeper-than-expected economic recessions in Europe and the U.S.[5] - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts and hawkish Fed stance contribute to a liquidity crisis that negatively impacts gold prices[37]