中东地缘冲突对国内纯碱市场有何影响？

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Since February 28, 2026, due to continuous Middle - East geopolitical conflicts and suspension of production in giant oil fields, international crude oil prices have risen sharply. During this period, soda ash futures prices first rose and then fell. The 05 contract of soda ash initially followed the crude oil price increase, reaching a maximum of 1330 yuan/ton, but then declined and has now returned to the level before the conflict [2][13]. - On the cost side, domestic soda ash production enterprises mainly use coal as energy, accounting for about 1/3 of production costs. The Middle - East conflict has led to a surge in overseas coal prices, but the short - term impact on domestic soda ash costs is relatively limited. If domestic coal prices follow the upward trend, it may support soda ash costs [2][21]. - On the supply side, since the second half of 2023, driven by high profits, the soda ash industry has rapidly expanded its production capacity. In January - February 2026, 355 million tons of new capacity were added, and the total domestic soda ash capacity reached 44.65 million tons. It is estimated that in 2026, the soda ash output will increase by about 5.4%, or 2 million tons, deepening the oversupply situation [3][28]. - On the demand side, in 2026, the demand for heavy soda ash from the floating glass and photovoltaic industries is weak, dragging down the overall demand. It is estimated that the total annual demand for soda ash will decrease by 5.1% year - on - year, a net reduction of 1.9 million tons, with heavy soda ash demand down 20% (a net reduction of 4.22 million tons) and light soda ash demand up 138% (a net increase of 2.32 million tons) [3][75]. - In terms of net exports, the Middle - East conflict has limited impact on the global soda ash supply - demand pattern. China's soda ash has significant cost advantages, and it is estimated that the net export of soda ash in 2026 will reach 3.09 million tons, a significant year - on - year increase [4][76]. - On the inventory side, it is expected that the supply will increase by 5.4% and the demand will decrease by 5.1% in 2026. The soda ash supply - demand will remain loose. The inventory may be relatively stable in the first half of the year and will continue to rise in the second half, with the total inventory possibly accumulating to 3.6 million tons by the end of the year [5][83]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Middle - East Geopolitical Conflicts Disturb Soda Ash Prices, Which First Rise and Then Fall - From February 28 to March 19, WTI crude oil prices rose to $96.14 per barrel, a 68% increase from the beginning of the year, and Brent crude oil futures prices rose to $108.65 per barrel, a nearly 79% increase. The 05 contract of soda ash futures first rose to 1330 yuan/ton and then fell back to 1217 yuan/ton as of March 19 [13]. - In March, the national mainstream average price of heavy soda ash was 1293 yuan/ton, with a slight month - on - month increase. As the futures price declined, the spot price also weakened, and the basis narrowed slightly [16]. - The short - term impact of the Middle - East conflict on domestic soda ash costs is limited. Recently, coal prices have fluctuated downward, and the production profits of the combined - alkali and ammonia - alkali methods have rebounded slightly. The profit of the combined - alkali method is 227.5 yuan, and that of the ammonia - alkali method is about - 25.3 yuan [21]. II. New Production Capacity Continues to Be Put into Use, and Soda Ash Production Reaches a New High - From 2023 - 2025, domestic new soda ash production capacity was 3.95 million tons, 2.6 million tons, and 1.8 million tons respectively. In January - February 2026, 3.55 million tons of new capacity were added, and the total capacity reached 44.65 million tons. There are still new production capacity projects after 2026, and the industry will remain in the production - expansion cycle in the next two years [28]. - In the first quarter of 2026, the operating rate of soda ash enterprises was around 85%. From January - February, the total national soda ash production was 6.49 million tons, a 7.2% year - on - year increase. Considering the new production capacity and summer maintenance, it is estimated that the monthly production in 2026 will remain at a high level of about 3.32 million tons, with an annual increase of about 5.4% or 2 million tons [33][42]. III. Floating Glass Cold - Repair Continues, and Photovoltaic Overcapacity Restricts Soda Ash Demand - Affected by the real - estate industry, the daily melting volume of floating glass has declined, and enterprises' profits have been squeezed. The photovoltaic industry has overcapacity, with an operating rate of less than 60%. In the first quarter of 2026, the total daily melting volume of floating and photovoltaic glass decreased by 5% year - on - year, and the corresponding heavy soda ash consumption also decreased by 5% [46]. - The adjustment of the photovoltaic product export tax - refund policy has led to a "rush - to - export" situation, which has temporarily boosted the production of photovoltaic components and battery chips but has also overdrawn future demand. However, the continuous Middle - East conflict may support photovoltaic demand [53]. - The demand for light soda ash in the first quarter was relatively strong. It is estimated that the apparent demand for light soda ash from January - February 2026 increased by 17.5% year - on - year. The demand for heavy soda ash from photovoltaic glass may decline in the future [67][70]. - Overall, it is estimated that in 2026, the total demand for soda ash will decrease by 5.1% year - on - year, a net reduction of 1.9 million tons, mainly due to the decline in heavy soda ash demand [75]. IV. The Middle - East Conflict Has Limited Impact, and Soda Ash Exports May Further Increase - In recent years, due to low domestic soda ash prices, exports have continued to increase. In 2025, the export volume was 2.1 million tons, and from January - February 2026, the cumulative export volume was 400,000 tons, a 39% year - on - year increase. - The Middle - East conflict has limited impact on the global soda ash supply - demand pattern. China's soda ash cost advantage may lead to further substitution of overseas enterprises. It is estimated that the net export of soda ash in 2026 will reach 3.09 million tons, a significant year - on - year increase [76][80]. V. The Total Soda Ash Inventory May Continue to Rise - In recent years, the problem of soda ash overcapacity has become more prominent, and inventory in all aspects has increased. As of now, the total inventory of the three major links (production enterprises, glass factories, and delivery warehouses) has reached 2.76 million tons, at an absolute high level in the same period [79]. - It is expected that in 2026, the supply - demand of soda ash will remain loose. The inventory may be stable in the first half of the year and will rise in the second half, possibly reaching 3.6 million tons by the end of the year [83]. VI. Summary - The Middle - East conflict has led to a sharp rise in international crude oil prices, while soda ash futures prices first rose and then fell. - The short - term impact of the conflict on domestic soda ash costs is limited, but if domestic coal prices rise, it may support costs. - The soda ash industry's production capacity is still expanding, and the output is expected to increase in 2026, deepening the oversupply. - The demand for soda ash from the floating glass and photovoltaic industries is weak, and the total demand is expected to decline in 2026. - Soda ash exports are expected to increase in 2026 due to China's cost advantages. - The soda ash inventory is expected to continue rising in 2026, and the supply - demand will remain loose. The conflict mainly brings emotional and cost - side disturbances to the domestic soda ash market, and it is difficult to reverse the substantial supply - demand contradiction [85][88]. Strategy Wait for the geopolitical conflict to ease and choose the opportunity to sell and hedge at high prices [6][89].