锡周报：宏观情绪压制，缅甸推进复产-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Macro sentiment and Myanmar's accelerated resumption of production are suppressing the tin market, and downstream demand orders have not shown a significant recovery, causing tin prices to decline under pressure and fluctuate [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Aspect - The US PPI in February rose 3.4% year-on-year, higher than the market expectation of 3.0% and significantly accelerating from the previous value of 2.9%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly dropped to 205,000, the lowest this year. Fed Chair Powell made hawkish remarks, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged and raised inflation expectations. After the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, the market postponed the expectation of interest rate cuts to 2027. Later, positive remarks from Israel and the US's relaxation of crude oil supply policies eased the situation, and the decline of tin prices narrowed and recovered [3] 3.2 Tin Ore - In February 2026, China's tin ore imports were 17,100 tons (equivalent to about 5,034 metal tons), a month-on-month decrease of 3.69% and a year-on-year increase of 96.04%. The cumulative imports from January to February were 35,000 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 88.05%. At the beginning of 2026, Myanmar's supply significantly recovered, with cumulative imports of 13,501 physical tons from January to February, a year-on-year surge of 174.96%, and the proportion quickly rebounded from 26.42% in the same period of 2025 to 38.63%. The recovery of Myanmar's supply was the main reason for the increase in total imports. Imports from sources other than Myanmar also increased simultaneously, with a cumulative 21,444 tons from January to February, a year-on-year increase of 56.79%, indicating the promotion of diversification but with a slower growth rate than Myanmar [7] 3.3 Refined Tin Production and Imports/Exports - In February 2026, China's refined tin production was 11,490 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.06% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.91%. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday and tight raw materials, the supply of tin ore in Yunnan showed a seasonal decline in February. It is expected that domestic smelters will gradually resume production in March, and the supply is expected to gradually recover. In February, the production of recycled refined tin was 1,770 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 46.69% and a year-on-year decrease of 40.2%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative imports of tin ingots were 3,269 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.22%, indicating weak overall demand. In January, the imports were 1,101 tons, and in February, they were 2,168 tons (a month-on-month surge of 96.91% and a year-on-year increase of only 16%), and the jump was mainly due to the disturbance of the arrival rhythm. From January to February 2026, the exports of tin ingots were 2,819 tons, a year-on-year sharp decrease of 37.41%. In February, the exports were 1,216 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 24.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 48.76% [7] 3.4 Inventory - During the week, Shanghai tin fell below the key point, and the social inventory of tin ingots decreased significantly. As of March 20, the total social inventory of SMM tin ingots in three places was 10,977 tons, a decrease of 2,380 tons compared with last week's inventory data. The LME inventory decreased by 35 tons to 8,920 tons [4] 3.5 Consumption - The performance of the traditional consumption peak season was lower than expected. Downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. The overall transaction in the spot market was first dull and then active, and there was concentrated bargain hunting when the price dropped sharply to a low level [5]