铝：中东地缘冲突在供给和需求预期上共同影响铝价

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global aluminum market has a continuous supply - demand gap. Supply - side constraints from domestic policies and overseas power issues are strong, with a low probability of unexpected increments. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain high profits to promote overseas production/复产 to fill the long - term supply - demand gap. The financial and resource attributes of aluminum prices are strongly driven by global geopolitical issues, the US mid - term elections, and China's "15th Five - Year Plan" start. Demand has bright spots in energy transformation and lightweighting. [4] - The Middle East geopolitical conflict has affected aluminum production in the region. Before the further expansion of aluminum production cuts in the Middle East, concerns about economic weakness may lead to capital outflows and a callback in aluminum prices, but the decline may be relatively moderate due to the 600,000 - ton production cut in local aluminum plants. If the conflict continues until mid - April, there is a risk of further expansion of production cuts, and the divergence between financial attribute drag and fundamental bullish factors will be more obvious. [4] - For alumina, the Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to rising shipping and domestic road transport prices. Guinea is about to introduce bauxite export restrictions, but downstream buyers are reluctant to accept the price increase. Domestic alumina new projects are about to start production, and alumina prices are expected to be under pressure. [102] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Aluminum Fundamentals - The global aluminum market has a supply - demand gap. Supply - side constraints include domestic policies and overseas power issues, with low probability of unexpected increments. The price elasticity is expanding, and the supply - side's risk - resistance ability is weak. [4] - The financial and resource attributes of aluminum prices are strongly driven by global geopolitical issues, the US mid - term elections, and China's "15th Five - Year Plan" start. Demand has bright spots in energy transformation and lightweighting. [4] Transaction Strategies - Unilateral: Before the further expansion of aluminum production cuts in the Middle East, economic weakness concerns may lead to capital outflows and a callback in aluminum prices, but the decline may be relatively moderate. If the conflict continues until mid - April, there is a risk of further expansion of production cuts, and aluminum prices may rise impulsively and then fall with the sector. [4] - Arbitrage: After the geopolitical conflict eases, there is an expectation of convergence in the domestic - overseas price difference. [4] Impact of Middle East Geopolitical Conflict - Aluminum smelting enterprises in the Middle East have reduced their operating rates. The current production cut volume has not exceeded the expectation in early March. Enterprises are actively looking for other transportation routes to supplement raw materials, and the next observation window for production cuts is in early April. [4][5] - Before the expansion of production cuts, the upward momentum of aluminum prices has weakened. The pessimistic expectations of economic recession and demand decline due to high oil prices are transmitted to aluminum prices through financial and commodity attributes, especially when the net long positions of LME aluminum speculative funds are still relatively high. [4] Supply - side Situation - Global and Chinese electrolytic aluminum production data from 2023 - 2026 are presented, showing trends in production volume and growth rate. [63][64] - Domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity changes are listed, including new investments, expansions, and production cuts in different regions and enterprises from 2024 - 2026. [70][71] Demand - side Situation - In the photovoltaic field, in January 2026, the output of photovoltaic modules was 35.2GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5GW. In 2025, the annual output of modules was 563.2GW, a year - on - year slight decrease of 1.2%. The short - term demand for photovoltaic modules is uncertain. [79] - In the automotive field, in February 2026, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, but exports maintained high growth. New energy vehicle production and sales also decreased year - on - year. [83] - In the real estate field, from January - February 2026, real estate development enterprise construction area, new construction area, and completion area all decreased year - on - year. [86] - In the power investment and cable field, during the "15th Five - Year Plan", China's power grid construction investment will exceed 5 trillion yuan. In February 2026, the output of aluminum rods was 287,000 tons, and the cumulative output from January - February was 623,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 5.46%. [90] - In the home appliance field, in March 2026, the total production plan of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased by 4.0% compared with the same period last year. [93] - In the export field, in February 2026, China exported 430,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products. From January - February, the cumulative export was 971,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.8%. With the increase in export profits, the export volume of aluminum products is expected to continue to increase. [96] Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance Outlook - The global electrolytic aluminum balance table from 2018 - 2030 is provided, including global production, demand, balance, overseas production, demand, net export, and balance, as well as China's production, demand, net import + strategic reserve release, and balance. [97] Alumina Alumina Strategy Outlook - Macro aspect: The Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to rising shipping and domestic road transport prices. [102] - Raw material aspect: Guinea is about to introduce bauxite export restrictions, but downstream buyers are reluctant to accept the price increase. [102] - Supply aspect: As of Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 93.7 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from last week. In Guizhou and Guangxi, there will be planned roasting furnace maintenance, and a new alumina project in Guangxi is about to start production, with expected output in mid - to late April. [102][111] - Transaction strategies: Unilateral: Domestic new projects are about to start production, and alumina prices are expected to be under pressure. Arbitrage and options: Temporary wait - and - see. [102] Alumina Capacity and Supply - The national alumina operating capacity has a narrow - range fluctuation. The southwest region has new projects about to start production. [109][111] - The alumina supply - demand balance situation is presented, including production, demand, and inventory changes. [110] Alumina Cost and Profit - In February 2026, the national alumina weighted full - cost was 2,604 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 63 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 656 yuan/ton. The average profit of the alumina industry was 22 yuan/ton. [120] - The cost and profit of alumina in different regions are compared, with some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi maintaining full - cost profitability. [118][119] Alumina Inventory - As of March 19, the national alumina inventory was 5.369 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from last week. The inventory of production enterprises at both ends has decreased, and the market variables are mainly concentrated in ports and public warehouses. [123] Alumina Import and Export - There is a real - time import profit in the alumina market. Due to the significant decline in oil prices, the sea freight of alumina from Australia to China's main ports decreased by about 2 US dollars on March 10. [126][131] New Alumina Projects - Overseas and domestic new alumina projects are listed, including the production capacity and progress of projects in different countries and regions from 2024 - 2028. [134][136] Bauxite Situation - The price of Guinea bauxite has increased, and the 45/3 bauxite sea - floating spot transaction price has reached 64 US dollars/dry ton. [138] - The arrival data of bauxite at major ports, the shipping volume of Guinea bauxite, and the price comparison of domestic and overseas bauxite are presented. [139][140] - The theoretical available days of Chinese bauxite inventory are analyzed. [141][142] Alumina Supply - Demand Balance - The global metallurgical - grade alumina supply - demand balance forecast from 2017 - 2027 is provided, including global production, demand, balance, overseas production, demand, net export, and balance, as well as China's production, demand, net import, and balance. [148] - The alumina cost calculation corresponding to the price of Guinea bauxite is presented. [149]