Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-03-23 01:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (9988.HK) [6] Core Views - Alibaba's AI and cloud segments are in an accelerated growth phase, with the integration of the ATH business group enhancing its full-stack AI capabilities [6] - The company achieved revenue of 284.8 billion RMB in FY26Q3, a year-over-year increase of 1.7%, but adjusted EBITA fell by 57.3% year-over-year, missing Bloomberg consensus estimates by 26% [6] - The management expects a significant recovery in e-commerce and CMR growth in Q1 2026, driven by improving consumer trends [6] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for FY2026 to FY2028 are 1,029.93 billion RMB, 1,163.2 billion RMB, and 1,329.26 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 3.4%, 12.9%, and 14.3% respectively [2] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be 79.31 billion RMB in FY2026, with a significant decline of 49.8% year-over-year, followed by recoveries of 44.3% and 34.8% in FY2027 and FY2028 [2] - The adjusted EPS is expected to be 4.15 RMB in FY2026, with a P/E ratio of 26 [2] Segment Performance - The e-commerce segment generated 159.3 billion RMB in revenue in FY26Q3, a year-over-year increase of 6%, while adjusted EBITA decreased by 43% due to investments in instant retail and user experience [6] - Instant retail revenue grew by 56% year-over-year, contributing to an increase in active buyers on the platform [6] - Alibaba Cloud's revenue reached 43.3 billion RMB in FY26Q3, a year-over-year increase of 36%, with expectations for annual revenue to grow to 100 billion USD within five years [6]