保险基本面梳理 113：偿付能力压力几何？还会增配权益吗？-20260323

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the insurance industry [12] Core Insights - The core of solvency changes is the variation in net assets, influenced by interest rates and equity market fluctuations. It is predicted that solvency will only slightly decline from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026. In the medium to long term, the demand from insurance capital combined with policy guidance will lead to an ongoing increase in the allocation of equity assets [2][9] Summary by Sections Solvency Overview - Solvency is a critical regulatory indicator for the insurance industry, with the current rules requiring a comprehensive solvency ratio of at least 100% and a core solvency ratio of at least 50%. Ideally, these should be maintained above 150% and 75% respectively for healthy operations [6][7] Current Solvency Status - As of Q4 2025, the overall core solvency adequacy ratio for the industry is at 130.4%, with property insurance companies at 212.7% and life insurance companies at 115%, all exceeding the minimum thresholds [7][22] Factors Affecting Solvency - The primary factors affecting solvency are changes in net assets, which are influenced by fluctuations in interest rates and equity markets. The report forecasts only a slight decline in solvency from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 due to these market changes [8][29] Equity Asset Allocation - There is a positive outlook for increasing the allocation of equity assets by insurance funds, driven by both internal demand and policy direction. The report highlights structural shortcomings in the bond market and a decreasing match between non-standard market yields and investment return targets for insurance companies [9][31]