几内亚铝土矿政策扰动，氧化铝短时震荡偏好

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Guinea's mining minister plans to limit bauxite exports by early April to stabilize prices, but the specific policy is yet to be formulated. The expected reduction in bauxite supply will increase alumina costs. In the short term, the price of alumina is expected to be supported by the supply and demand situation, but in the long term, the expected new production capacity will limit the upside space of alumina prices [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Trading Data - The main alumina futures contract rose by 85 yuan/ton last week, closing at 3041 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price of the alumina spot market on Friday was 2752 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from the previous week. The inventory of alumina futures warehouse receipts last Friday was 399,000 tons, an increase of 25,143 tons from the previous week, and the factory warehouse inventory was 1,500 tons, unchanged [3][4] 2. Market Review - The domestic bauxite market has limited changes, with slow resumption of mining in the north and tight supply in the south. The import policy of Guinea's bauxite has no impact on the current spot arrival level in China. The supply of alumina has both production increases and decreases, and the overall operating production capacity has decreased slightly. The production of the electrolytic aluminum industry has increased slightly, and the demand for alumina has increased slightly [4] 3. Market Outlook - The expected reduction in bauxite supply will increase alumina costs. The new production capacity of alumina has not yet been put into production, and there is also some production reduction. The overall supply pressure of alumina is not large. In the short term, the price of alumina is expected to be supported by the supply and demand situation, but in the long term, the expected new production capacity will limit the upside space of alumina prices [6] 4. Industry News - In February 2026, China's alumina imports were 181,010 tons, a year-on-year increase of 334.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 30.5%. Exports were 146,430 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 29.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 22.1%. In February 2026, China imported 1,6953 million tons of bauxite, a month-on-month decrease of 11.95% and a year-on-year increase of 17.61%. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative bauxite imports were 3,62058 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.23%. In February 2026, China imported 1,39831 million tons of Guinea bauxite, a month-on-month decrease of 3.15% and a year-on-year increase of 30.33%. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative imports of Guinea bauxite were 2,84211 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.51%. The 1.2 million-ton alumina project of Guangxi Long'an Hetai New Materials Co., Ltd. will be put into trial production in April. The first-phase 1.2 million-ton alumina production capacity of the Guangxi Fangchenggang alumina project started feeding on March 18, and the product is expected to be produced in mid-to-late April [7] 5. Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures prices, spot prices, spot premiums, inter-period spreads, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina exchange inventories, and alumina cost profits [10][14][16]