成本支撑，但宏观偏弱

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation is weak with hawkish monetary policies, tense geopolitical situations, and market trading of recession which drags down the non - ferrous sector. However, there is cost support in the industry. For nickel, the supply - demand relationship is tightening marginally due to factors such as supply disruptions and approaching peak demand season. For stainless steel, downstream demand is weak, and the supply may be relatively abundant in April [7][10]. - For nickel trading, wait for the trading logic to switch. Consider buying after the macro - sentiment stabilizes and use protective option strategies. For stainless steel trading, expect weak and volatile prices in the short - term and temporarily hold off on arbitrage [7][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Spread Tracking and Inventory 1.1 Spread Data - From March 16th to March 20th, the Shanghai - London ratio, spot import profit and loss, LME nickel premium/discount, and various nickel and stainless - steel spreads and premiums showed different changes. For example, the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.01 compared to the end of last month, and the spot import profit increased by 397 compared to the end of last week [11]. 1.2 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory - Global visible nickel inventory reached 374,000 tons and started to decline by 187 tons this week. Although domestic inventory increased by 959 tons, LME inventory decreased by 1,146 tons. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remained stable, and the supply shortage situation was alleviated [18]. 1.3 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory - The social inventory of stainless steel is being depleted. However, if steel mills maintain high - level production and normal shipments while demand is weak, the supply may be relatively abundant in April [10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Pure Nickel 2.1.1 Production and Import - In January 2026, refined nickel production increased by 26% year - on - year to 37,700 tons, reaching a historical high. In February, it decreased by 5% month - on - month to about 35,800 tons due to the Spring Festival. In March, production is expected to return to normal and reach a new high. From January to February 2026, the net import of refined nickel was 32,900 tons, compared with a net export of 1,543 tons last year [27]. 2.1.2 Consumption - In 2025, the cumulative consumption of pure nickel increased by 2% year - on - year to 291,000 tons. From January to February 2026, it decreased by 8% year - on - year. The SMM survey showed that the PMI of nickel downstream industries fell below the 50 - point boom - bust line in February. Consumption is expected to rebound significantly in March [31]. 2.2 Stainless Steel 2.2.1 Raw Materials - Nickel Ore - The price of nickel ore from Indonesia and the Philippines has flattened. The price of high - nickel iron has declined, and domestic nickel - iron factories are cautious in raw material procurement. The supply of domestic nickel ore is tight, and the price is strong [33]. 2.2.2 Raw Materials - NPI - The price of NPI is under pressure. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia is increasing, and the inventory of NPI in China is at a certain level [35][36]. 2.2.3 Raw Materials - Chromium - The price of chromium - based products has increased. Zimbabwe imposed a 10% tax on the export of chromium - based products starting from January 1, 2026, causing the price of chromium ore to rebound. The long - term procurement price of high - carbon chromium iron by Tsingshan Group in April 2026 increased compared to March [48]. 2.2.4 Raw Materials - Steel Mill Profits - Steel mills are currently experiencing losses in immediate - term profits. The cost of cold - rolled stainless steel is relatively high, with the estimated cold - rolled cash cost at around 14,850 yuan/ton and the integrated cost at 14,350 yuan/ton [50]. 2.2.5 Supply - The production of stainless - steel crude steel in China and Indonesia in January - February 2026 was 7.026 million tons, a 2% year - on - year increase. The import of stainless steel decreased by 26% year - on - year, the export decreased by 35% year - on - year, and the net export decreased by 42% year - on - year [61]. 2.2.6 Demand - The shipbuilding industry is in a boom cycle and provides support for stainless - steel demand. Other terminal industries, especially the real - estate industry, have an unoptimistic growth rate [63]. 2.3 New Energy Vehicles 2.3.1 Vehicle Sales and Battery Production - In February 2026, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles decreased year - on - year. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 694,000 and 796,000 respectively, a year - on - year decline of 21.8% and 14.2%. The production of power cells from January to February increased by 33% year - on - year, mainly due to the significant increase in the battery capacity per vehicle [70]. 2.3.2 Global Market - In January 2026, global new - energy vehicle sales decreased by 6% year - on - year. European new - energy vehicle sales increased by 22.1% year - on - year, while US new - energy vehicle sales decreased by 25% year - on - year. From January to February 2026, China's new - energy vehicle exports increased by 108% year - on - year [78]. 2.3.3 Sulfuric Acid Nickel Supply and Demand - In 2026, the national subsidy favors mid - to - high - end new - energy vehicles, and the battery capacity per vehicle has increased significantly, which is beneficial to ternary materials and their raw materials. From January to February 2026, the production of sulfuric acid nickel, ternary precursors, and ternary cathode materials in China increased year - on - year [80]. 2.3.4 Intermediate Products - From January to February 2026, the production of MHP in Indonesia increased by 12% year - on - year to 79,000 metal tons, and the production of high - grade nickel matte increased by 87% year - on - year to 65,700 metal tons [83]. 2.4 Supply - Demand Outlook - The supply - demand situation may improve marginally in mid - to - late March [85].