棉系周报：基本面变化不大，棉价震荡为主-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market have not changed significantly, and cotton prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is likely to move in a range, while the domestic cotton market is expected to show a slightly stronger trend in the short term [1][8][25] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Market Analysis - US Cotton Market: The fundamentals of the US cotton market have not changed much, and it is expected to move in a range. As of the week of March 12, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 3.0482 million tons, accounting for 100.6% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. The weekly deliverable ratio was 79.9%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 81.7%, 1.1 percentage points higher year-on-year [8] - US Cotton Growth Situation: As of March 12, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 3.0482 million tons, accounting for 100.6% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. The inspection volume of US upland cotton was 2.9602 million tons, with an inspection progress of 100.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 4%; the inspection volume of Pima cotton was 88,000 tons, with an inspection progress of 104.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 14% [8] - US Cotton Production Area Weather Situation: As of March 10, the drought index in the main US cotton production areas (93.0%) was 229, a week-on-week decrease of 3 and a year-on-year increase of 97; the drought index in Texas was 253, a week-on-week decrease of 1 and a year-on-year increase of 65. The drought index in the main US cotton production areas remained basically stable, and the drought levels in the main production areas and Texas were still at relatively high levels in recent years. According to the quarterly outlook, the drought in the main US cotton production areas will continue from March to May, intensify in the central and western regions, and ease in the eastern production areas [8] - US Cotton Sales Situation: As of the week of March 12, the weekly contract volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 44,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 22% and a 30% decrease from the average level of the previous four weeks; among them, Vietnam signed 17,200 tons and Turkey signed 6,300 tons. The weekly contract volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 27,700 tons, with China signing 11,000 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 62,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 26% and an 8% increase from the average level of the previous four weeks, with Vietnam shipping 22,100 tons and Pakistan shipping 8,300 tons [8] - CFTC: As of March 6, the number of unpriced contracts of the seller on the ON - CALL 2605 contract decreased by 3,239 to 17,576, a decrease of 70,000 tons week-on-week. The total number of unpriced contracts of the seller in the 2025/26 season decreased by 1,019 to 32,083, equivalent to 730,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons week-on-week. The total number of unpriced contracts of the seller on ICE increased to 56,853, equivalent to 1.29 million tons, an increase of 1,475 contracts or 30,000 tons week-on-week [8] - India: According to the latest report of the Cotton Association of India (CAI), as of February 28, 2026, compared with the previous month, the estimated cotton balance sheet for the 2025/26 season showed an increase of 60,000 tons in production, 170,000 tons in domestic demand, a decrease of 50,000 tons in imports, and a decrease of 160,000 tons in ending inventory. Compared with the previous year, the beginning inventory increased by 360,000 tons, production increased by 140,000 tons, imports increased by 100,000 tons, domestic demand increased by 20,000 tons, exports decreased by 50,000 tons, and ending inventory increased by 640,000 tons [8] - Global: According to the latest March global cotton production and sales forecast of the USDA, the global cotton production in March was 26.34 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 250,000 tons, with China's production increasing by 100,000 tons to 7.72 million tons; total consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.84 million tons; ending inventory increased by 280,000 tons to 16.63 million tons [8] 3.2 Domestic Market Analysis - Supply Side: As of 24:00 on March 11, 2026, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises was 33,290,304 bales, totaling 7,514,731 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.03%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 7,128,929 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.06%. As of March 6, 2026, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 5.2078 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 59,800 tons (a decrease of 1.14%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 4.0151 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 85,400 tons (a decrease of 2.08%); the commercial cotton in the inland area was 636,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 7,200 tons (an increase of 1.14%) [26] - Demand Side: As of March 19, the cumulative sales volume of national lint cotton was 5.683 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.767 million tons and an increase of 2.16 million tons compared with the average of the past four years. As of March 12, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 76%, a week-on-week increase of 3.83%. This week, the spinning mills in the inland area continued to resume production, with an operating rate of 60 - 70% in the inland area and over 90% in Xinjiang. As of March 12, the yarn inventory of spinning mills in major areas was 34.8 days, a week-on-week increase of 2.35%. This week, the operating rate of spinning mills increased, but new orders for spinning mills were limited, yarn sales were slow, and finished product inventory accumulated, with an inventory of 18 - 25 days for inland enterprises and 40 - 45 days for enterprises in Xinjiang [26] - Comprehensive View: Currently, the market contradictions are not significant, the demand side performs well, and the market has certain expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April". At present, the cotton sales progress is still fast and at a high level in the same period of previous years. The fundamentals of cotton have certain support [26] 3.3 Futures Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: The issuance of 300,000 tons of import sliding - scale duty quotas this time has a relatively small impact on domestic supply. However, the issuance time is very early, leaving room for future policies. It is expected that the issuance of these quotas will likely benefit US cotton, narrow the domestic - foreign price difference, and the Zhengzhou cotton price may also follow the upward trend of US cotton. Recently, crude oil prices have fallen, and cotton prices have been affected by the overall market atmosphere, but considering the current market support, the downward space is expected to be relatively limited [38] - Unilateral Strategy: It is expected that the US cotton price will likely fluctuate in a range in the short term. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have certain support. It is advisable to consider building long positions on dips and not to chase high prices [38] - Arbitrage Strategy: Wait and see [38] - Option Strategy: Wait and see [38] 3.4 Weekly Data Tracking - Domestic - Foreign Price Difference: The chart shows the domestic - foreign cotton price difference, the price difference under 1% tariff, the domestic cotton price, and the imported cotton price under 1% tariff from 2020 to 2023 [41] - 9 - 1 Spread Trend: The chart shows the 9 - 1 spread trends of different years, such as CF1909 - 2001, CF2009 - 2101, etc. [42] - Cotton Inventory: The table shows the historical data of national cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton industrial inventory, reserve inventory, and other aspects from 2015 to 2024 [44] - Basis: The charts show the basis of cotton in different months (January, May, September), the basis of US seven - major market upland cotton, and the basis between the spot price of C32S cotton yarn and the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton yarn [47]