短线偏弱，预期向好

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The short - term market for lithium carbonate is weak, but the long - term outlook is positive. In March, the domestic supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has loosened marginally, and it is expected to shift to inventory accumulation. There is selling pressure from hedging positions and macro - sentiment, but there is also certain support from the demand peak season and normal imports from April to May. The recommended strategies are to buy on dips when the macro - environment stabilizes for unilateral trading, to wait and see for arbitrage, and to adopt protective strategies for options [6]. Summary According to the Directory Demand Analysis - New Energy Vehicles: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday and weak consumer willingness, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in February decreased year - on - year. The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles from January to February and from March 1 - 15 also declined year - on - year. However, the power cell production increased by 33% year - on - year from January to February, mainly due to the significant increase in the battery capacity per vehicle. The global new energy vehicle sales in January 2026 decreased by 6% year - on - year, with European sales growing by 22.1% and US sales decreasing by 25%. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to February 2026 increased by 108% year - on - year [14][22]. - Energy Storage Market: Supported by policies, the energy storage market has full orders. The 2026 National Development and Reform Commission Document No. 114 proposed a capacity - based electricity price mechanism for grid - side independent new - type energy storage, increasing profit sources. After the Spring Festival, the demand for replenishing orders was released, and the orders of first - and second - tier enterprises are scheduled until the second half of the year [28]. - Cell and Cathode Production: In February, the production of batteries, cells, cathodes, and electrolytes decreased month - on - month. In March, the production of all these aspects increased month - on - month. It is expected that each link will have a small month - on - month increase in April [35]. Supply Analysis - Smelter Resumption and Production Restoration: From January to February, the production of lithium carbonate decreased month - on - month due to smelter maintenance, but the cumulative year - on - year growth was 43%. In March, with the resumption of production and the ramping - up of new capacity, the monthly production is expected to exceed 105,000 tons, reaching a record high. The production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials, except mica, is increasing. The resumption of lithium ore exports from Zimbabwe is a key factor affecting future domestic lithium ore supply [43]. - Monthly Production by Raw Material in China: The supply of mica ore is insufficient [44]. - Increased Supply in March: From January to February, the cumulative imports of lithium carbonate increased by 65% year - on - year to 52,000 tons. After March, imports may gradually return to normal. The cumulative imports of lithium ore from January to February increased by 22% year - on - year. Australian mines were shipped intensively in March, and there will be no significant impact on lithium ore imports before May [52]. Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory - Supply - Demand Balance Estimation: No specific numerical analysis of supply - demand balance is provided in the text, but it is mentioned that the supply - demand balance has loosened marginally in March, and inventory accumulation is expected [6]. - Inventory Situation: After the Spring Festival, the inventory reduction has continuously slowed down, with a reduction of only 86 tons this week, and inventory accumulation may occur next week. Although the supply - demand balance has loosened marginally, the domestic inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped to the level of early 2022, supporting high - level prices. Inventory has shifted downstream, and the middle and upstream still have room for inventory replenishment, but smelters are more active in shipping after the weakening of lithium price increases. Smelter inventories are still low, and downstream buyers have sufficient stocks and are not in a hurry to purchase [62].