宏观数据速览：资讯早班车-2026-03-23-20260323

1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - The global economic and political situation is complex, with the military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran intensifying, which has a significant impact on the energy market and may lead to a long - term energy crisis. The Chinese government will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and take measures to boost domestic demand and promote economic development [10][11][17] - The performance of different industries varies. The gold price has dropped sharply, the aluminum price has risen due to supply shortages, the coal - coke - steel - ore industry has new exploration results, the energy - chemical industry is affected by the Middle East situation, and the agricultural product market, especially the pig - breeding market, is in a downturn [5][6][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 slowed down year - on - year, with a growth rate of 4.5%. The manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in February 2026 were below the boom - bust line, at 49.0% and 49.5%, respectively. Social financing scale in February 2026 was 23855 billion yuan. The growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in February 2026 were 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% respectively. New RMB loans in February 2026 were 9000 billion yuan. CPI in February 2026 increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 0.9%. Fixed - asset investment in the first two months of 2026 increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8%. Exports in February 2026 increased by 39.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 13.8% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Domestic refined oil prices may rise to the "9 - yuan era", with an expected increase of about 2000 yuan/ton. The 1 - year and 5 - year LPRs in March 2026 remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, and experts predict a possible interest rate cut in the middle of the year. The trading rules of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have been adjusted [2] - The People's Bank of China will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy. The US - China trade relations are expected to improve, and both sides hope to promote economic and trade cooperation. The base differences of domestic commodities vary, and the Middle East situation is tense [3][4] 3.2.2 Metals - The international gold price has dropped by 10.49%, and domestic gold jewelry prices have also declined. The performance of gold - related listed companies may be further differentiated, with upstream gold mining enterprises benefiting the most from the rising gold price. The calculation method of the margin account fund adequacy ratio for ICBC's agent individual precious metal trading business has been modified [5] - Aluminum production in Bahrain has been affected, leading to a sharp rise in international aluminum prices. Battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices have reached new lows in over a month [6][7] 3.2.3 Coal - Coking - Steel - Ore - A large - scale rare - earth mine in Sichuan has increased its reserves by over 200%, and Indonesia is expected to approve a nickel - ore production plan of about 1 billion tons by the end of March [8] 3.2.4 Energy - Chemical - The military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has affected the safety of navigation in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. The US has threatened to attack Iran's power plants, and Iran has responded strongly. The global energy supply is at risk, and the supply of liquefied petroleum gas in India is in short supply [9][10][11] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - China will implement a plan to increase the income of urban and rural residents to boost consumption. The pig - breeding market is in deep losses, and the state has started to purchase frozen pork for storage. Scientists have developed "long - life rice" [12][13][14] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 2423 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 4500 billion yuan of MLF will expire. Last week, the central bank achieved a net injection of 658 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [15] 3.3.2 Key News - The draft financial law is open for public comments, aiming to strengthen financial risk management. China will promote high - quality development and opening - up, and the government will take measures to boost domestic demand. The central bank will promote the high - level opening of the financial industry and maintain a moderately loose monetary policy [16][17] - The performance comparison benchmarks of wealth management products are showing trends of "anchor replacement" and reduction. The LPR has remained stable for ten months. The sixth state - owned bank's financial asset investment company has been established. Iran has put forward six conditions for a ceasefire, and the US is seeking diplomatic solutions [19][20][21] - Some bond - related events have occurred, such as the ineffective bond - holder meeting and the default of debt repayment. Overseas credit ratings of some companies have been adjusted [22] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The main interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank bond market in China have been fluctuating within a narrow range. The performance of exchange - traded bonds and convertible bonds has been mixed. Shibor short - term varieties have mostly declined, and the yields of European and US bonds have generally risen [23][24][25] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar has risen, while the US dollar index has also risen, and most non - US currencies have declined [26][27] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the US - Iran conflict may lead to high oil prices for a long time, and China's exports may slow down in the short term. Huatai Fixed - Income is cautious about US bonds. Guosheng Fixed - Income expects the long - end interest rate to recover. Shenwan Fixed - Income provides investment strategies for small and medium - sized banks' Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [28][29][30] 3.3.6 Today's Reminder - On March 23, 2026, a large number of bonds will be listed, issued, and have their payments made, and many bonds will have their principal and interest repaid [30][31] 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The A - share market has shown a significant divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new low this year. The Hong Kong stock market has also declined, but the IPO financing amount has exceeded 100 billion Hong Kong dollars [32]